2021-11-17-科尔尼-The_future_of_beverages_12页_699kb

The Future of Beverages: Trends and Strategic Implications

Core Content

The beverage industry is undergoing significant transformation due to evolving consumer preferences, new product innovations, brand strategies, and distribution models. Traditional beverage companies must adapt quickly to remain competitive, as niche and local brands are gaining traction and reshaping the market landscape.

Main Consumer Trends

• Gen Z Dominance: Generation Z, born between 1998 and 2017, is expected to become the largest demographic by 2026, with over $50 billion in buying power. They are digital natives, favoring personalized, sustainable, and authentic products.
• Health-Consciousness: Consumers are increasingly prioritizing health, leading to a demand for low or no-sugar options, natural ingredients, and functional beverages.
• Preference for Transparency and Simplicity: 70% of Gen Z consumers say it is important that products align with their beliefs. They prefer real people in advertising and brands that are transparent and authentic.
• Trust in Influencers: 54% of Gen Z consumers are influenced by social media influencers, and they are 1.3x more likely to purchase based on influencer recommendations than traditional celebrities.
• Local Preference: 41% of Gen Z consumers distrust big brands, and 77% prefer shopping in brick-and-mortar stores. Local brands are seen as more authentic and trustworthy.

Key Product Trends

• Health-Conscious Beverages: The market is seeing a surge in naturally flavored water, tea, protein-based drinks, and functional beverages with added health benefits.
• Non-Alcoholic and Low-Alcohol Alternatives: With declining alcohol consumption, especially in countries like Norway, non-alcoholic substitutes such as beer, cider, and spirits are gaining popularity.
• Premium and Craft Beverages: Companies are introducing premium soft drinks and craft sodas to meet consumer demand for unique, high-quality products.
• Consumer-Driven Innovation: There is a growing trend of consumers investing in home appliances and ingredients to make their own beverages, such as spritzers and lemonades.

Brand Trends: Learning from the "Piranhas"

• Small Brands Are Gaining Ground: Niche and local brands, often called "piranha" brands, are stealing market share from large companies. These brands are growing at up to 20% annually.
• Six Mantras for Piranha Brands:
  • Establish a sharp value proposition.
  • Focus on an authentic brand.
  • Build an asset-light business model.
  • Be fast to launch and slow to expand.
  • Maintain a risk-taking mindset.
  • Think before you spend.
• Strategies for Big Brands:
  • Launch sub-brands to align with Gen Z values.
  • Acquire smaller, trend-driven brands.
  • Develop local sub-brands to cater to regional preferences.
  • Invest in flexible and innovative brand models.

Distribution Trends: Think Direct-to-Consumer

• Shift to E-Commerce and Direct-to-Consumer Models: As consumer behavior changes, companies are exploring direct-to-consumer (DTC) value chains to reduce dependency on traditional distribution networks.
• Emerging Technologies: Innovations such as autonomous driving, smart highways, and delivery drones are expected to lower distribution costs and improve efficiency.
• Urban Focus: Door-to-door delivery is more viable in urban areas, while rural markets may still rely on traditional distribution methods.
• Examples of DTC Models:
  • Amazon Fresh: Offers fast delivery of groceries and beverages.
  • Nestlé's ReadyRefresh: Enables online ordering and flexible delivery schedules.

Strategic Recommendations

To stay relevant and competitive, beverage companies must:

• Understand and Engage Customers: Develop strong data analytics capabilities and build emotional connections with consumers.
• Accelerate Product Innovation: Implement lean processes and agile testing to reduce time-to-market and ensure product relevance.
• Adapt Brand Strategies: Emulate the strengths of piranha brands, such as authenticity and simplicity, and consider acquiring or launching sub-brands.
• Revamp Distribution Models: Explore DTC and flexible distribution channels, but test new models carefully due to high investment costs.

Conclusion

The beverage industry is evolving rapidly, driven by health trends, digital consumer behavior, and the rise of local and niche brands. Companies that embrace these changes and innovate across all four areas—customers, products, brands, and distribution—will be better positioned to lead the market in the future.

Key Figures and Data

• Gen Z Trust in Big Brands: 41% do not trust big brands, compared to 31% of Millennials.
• Gen Z Attention Span: 8 seconds, 33% shorter than Millennials.
• Sugar Tax Examples:
  • Norway: 42% increase in sugar tax to 50 cents per liter.
  • Great Britain: £18p for >5g sugar in 1000ml.
  • France: €7.5 per hectoliter.
  • India: 40% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages.
• Preference for Personalized Experiences: 75% of consumers are more likely to buy if the experience is personalized.

Authors

• Adrian Kirste – Partner, Munich
• Franziska Neumann – Consultant, New York
• Marlene Kessler – Consultant, Dusseldorf

The authors acknowledge the contribution of Indira Banerjea (Research Expert, Dusseldorf) to this study.