卡内基国际和平基金会-Regional-Arrangements-in-the-Arabian-Gulf_13页_239kb

报告摘要

Summary of "Regional Arrangements in the Arabian Gulf"

Core Content

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is a regional trading agreement comprising six countries: Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. These nations are among the world's largest oil producers, yet their trade in goods remains low at about 7% of total trade, significantly below that of other RTAs like NAFTA (52%) and the EU (68%). Despite similar factor endowments, the GCC's trade intensity is relatively high when adjusted for market size, indicating potential for growth.

Main Views

Trade in Goods: While the GCC has already reduced tariffs, further gains from trade liberalization are limited due to similar export structures and small market size. Non-tariff barriers and trade costs (freight, insurance, customs delays) are more significant than tariffs in affecting trade flows.
Services as a Growth Driver: The biggest opportunities for economic diversification and growth lie in the liberalization of the service sector, which includes finance, telecommunications, transport, and business services. Services integration can lead to lower prices, better quality, and increased variety, while also promoting efficiency and innovation.
FDI and Productivity: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is a key mechanism for service sector development. However, the GCC's administrative and regulatory capacities are weak, which hinders the effective implementation of reforms. Improving these capacities is essential for realizing the potential of service liberalization.
Challenges in Implementation: Despite ambitious agreements, the GCC faces significant challenges in executing reforms. These include regulatory inertia, concerns over privatization and monopolies, and political obstacles such as the lack of consensus on a monetary union.

Key Information

Tariff Levels: The GCC has some of the lowest external tariffs in the world outside OECD countries, averaging under five percent.
Trade Costs: The "Overall Trade Restrictiveness Index" (OTRI) for the GCC is 12.2%, compared to 6.6% for the EU, indicating higher trade costs within the GCC.
Service Sector Employment: The service sector dominates employment in the GCC, with over 50% of the workforce in most member states. However, productivity in services is lower than in other high-income countries.
FDI Growth: FDI has increased in all GCC countries except Kuwait since the late 1990s, driven by economic liberalization and the need to attract investment.
Administrative Capacities: GCC countries rank low in public administration and accountability (average percentile rank of 53 and 16, respectively), highlighting the need for institutional strengthening.
Monetary Union Stagnation: The proposed GCC monetary union has stalled due to political disagreements and administrative challenges, such as Oman's refusal to join and the UAE's dispute over the location of the GCC Central Bank.

Recommendations

Logistics and Trade Facilitation: Improving logistics and reducing non-tariff barriers can enhance trade in goods and position the GCC as a global transportation hub.
Service Sector Integration: The GCC should focus on removing "behind-the-border" barriers and promoting regulatory cooperation in services.
FDI Liberalization: Continued liberalization of FDI and the creation of special economic zones may help facilitate service sector growth and attract foreign investment.
Institutional Reform: Strengthening administrative capacities and governance is critical for the successful implementation of trade and economic reforms.
Political Coordination: The GCC must overcome political and institutional hurdles to achieve deeper regional integration and economic cooperation.

Ambition vs. Capacity

The GCC's ambitious goals for regional integration often outpace its administrative and political capacities. While the region has made progress in trade agreements and FDI liberalization, the lack of effective implementation remains a major constraint. The GCC is not better positioned than multilateral or unilateral forums in terms of market access, but it offers advantages in terms of reciprocity, speed, and depth of negotiations due to fewer competing interests and shared borders.

Conclusion

To fulfill its potential as a driver of economic growth, the GCC must address its internal administrative weaknesses and political challenges. This includes strengthening institutions, improving regulatory frameworks, and enhancing the efficiency of the service sector. The region's success in economic diversification will depend on these reforms being effectively executed.

Tables Summary

Table 1: Overall and Tariff-only Trade Restrictiveness Indices (2007)

GCC: 12.2% (Overall), 6.0% (Tariff-only)
EU: 6.6% (Overall), 1.4% (Tariff-only)
US: 6.4% (Overall), 1.6% (Tariff-only)

Table 2: Ease of Doing Business (2008)

GCC countries vary significantly in ease of doing business and trading across borders, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE leading in both rankings.

Table 3: Service Sector (2005)

GCC countries have high service sector employment but lower value added compared to other high-income regions.
EU, US, and Japan have higher service sector productivity and value added.

Table 4: Public Administration, Accountability, and Reform (Percentile Rank, 2007)

GCC countries have relatively low administrative and accountability rankings, indicating a need for institutional reform.

Authors

Uri Dadush: Senior associate and director in Carnegie's International Economics Program, with a background at the World Bank.
Lauren Falcao: Junior fellow at the International Economics Program, now at the Center of Evaluation for Global Action, UC Berkeley.