卡内基国际和平基金会-The-TPP-and-RCEP-Regional-Trade-Agreements-with-Tim-Stratford_4页_332kb

CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST: Episode 26 Summary

Core Content

This episode of the Carnegie-Tsinghua "China in the World" podcast discusses the implications of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on U.S.-China trade relations and regional economic integration. The conversation is between Paul Haenle, director of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center, and Tim Stratford, a former U.S. Trade Representative and managing partner at Covington and Burling in Beijing.

Main Points

• TPP and U.S. Trade Strategy:
  The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is framed as a significant trade initiative aimed at liberalizing trade and investment across the Asia-Pacific region. It was initially launched under the Bush Administration and continued under the Obama Administration. The U.S. joined the negotiations not as a containment strategy against China, but to demonstrate a new model of trade agreements and encourage broader trade liberalization.

• China's Initial Skepticism:
  China initially viewed the TPP with suspicion, perceiving it as a tool to contain its economic rise. However, the tone has shifted, with some in China now showing a more positive reception to the agreement, particularly as it appears to offer potential economic benefits.

• RCEP vs. TPP:
  The RCEP is a regional economic pact in which China is actively involved, whereas the TPP is led by the U.S. and excludes China. While the TPP is more ambitious in terms of trade liberalization, the RCEP is seen as a more realistic platform for countries that are not yet ready to commit to the higher standards of the TPP.

• Future Possibilities:
  Stratford suggests that the TPP and RCEP could coexist or even converge in the future. He believes that the success of the TPP could serve as a model for other countries, including China, to follow. A U.S.-China joint effort to create a unified trade and investment system in the Asia-Pacific could be a constructive goal, potentially leading to a WTO Plus standard for the region.

• Timing and Readiness:
  Stratford acknowledges that China may not be ready to join the TPP immediately, and some stakeholders are concerned about overextending itself. However, he suggests that long-term progress through RCEP could help build the necessary confidence and infrastructure for China to eventually participate in the TPP.

Key Information

• TPP Background:

  • Launched at the end of the Bush Administration.
  • Aimed to demonstrate a new generation of trade agreements.
  • Includes countries like Singapore, Brunei, New Zealand, Australia, Chile, etc.
  • Not designed as a containment strategy against China.

• RCEP Background:

  • A regional economic pact where China is a key participant.
  • Less ambitious than the TPP in terms of trade liberalization.
  • Seen as a stepping stone for countries not yet ready to join the TPP.

• U.S.-China Trade Relations:

  • The U.S. Ambassador to China, Max Baucus, has emphasized the importance of strengthening economic ties.
  • Economic agreements are believed to foster geopolitical understanding and mutual trust.
  • There is a potential for future collaboration between the U.S. and China in regional trade integration.

• Stratford's Perspective:

  • Advocates for trade liberalization as a means to build economic and political relationships.
  • Believes that success of the TPP could inspire other countries, including China, to adopt similar reforms.
  • Emphasizes the importance of progressive engagement and data-driven decision-making in trade negotiations.

Conclusion

The episode highlights the evolving perception of the TPP in China and the potential for coexistence or convergence with the RCEP. It underscores the importance of trade agreements in fostering economic cooperation and geopolitical stability in the Asia-Pacific region. Stratford’s insights suggest that while the TPP is ambitious, the RCEP could serve as a more realistic and inclusive platform for regional economic integration, with the possibility of future collaboration between the U.S. and China.