20150814-高盛-Weekly_Healthcare_Pulse_23页_569kb

报告摘要

Weekly Healthcare Pulse Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the healthcare sector's performance and market dynamics during the week of August 13, 2015. It highlights the influence of macroeconomic factors, positioning themes, and sector-specific events on stock movements. The report also includes insights from Goldman Sachs analysts on key subsectors and upcoming events that could impact investor sentiment.

Main Points

Market Dynamics

Sector Correlations: The healthcare sector showed increased correlations, indicating that group trading dynamics and macroeconomic positioning themes are driving the market.
Momentum Reversal: The momentum basket (GSMEFMOM), which includes the strongest 12-month performers, is showing signs of rolling over, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment.
Biotech Drawdown: Biotech stocks, particularly the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index (NBI), have experienced a selloff of 8% from its July peak, with a 24-day drawdown. This is longer than the average 47-day drawdown seen over the past five years.
Interest Rates: Rising interest rates are a concern for the sector, especially for biotech and pharma companies. Pharma generally lags in rising rate environments, while managed care holds up better.

Sector Performance

Major Pharma/Generics: BMY's continued weakness is attributed to concerns over MRK's Keytruda and its potential all-comers label in lung cancer. Agilent's F3Q results are expected to be mixed, influenced by peer performance and China-related trends.
Biotechnology: Biotech remains under pressure with low investor conviction. However, underlying fundamentals are still viewed positively. Companies like CLVS and AZN are expected to release data at the World Lung Conference, with CLVS potentially presenting Ph2 updates on Roci.
Specialty & SMID Pharma: The sector underperformed, but MNK is noted as a contrarian long due to its discount to peers and high free cash flow yield. SAGE is seen as a potential buy on the dip.
Medical Technology: Medical Devices outperformed the S&P 500 and XLV, with continued revenue growth expected in 2H. Supplies underperformed, but MCK is viewed favorably for upside potential.
Diagnostics & Labs: ALR's turnaround is viewed more positively post-investor meetings, and MYGN shares rose after F4Q results, though the company's guidance is considered too optimistic.
Managed Care: The sector underperformed due to investor repositioning, but WCG showed strong performance following the KY rate reset. The FL MMA rate update (Sep 1) is expected to provide margin relief.
Providers: Muted performance was driven by ACA concerns and profit-taking. LPNT is highlighted as the highest levered to hospital consolidation.
Supply Chain/Drug Chains/HCIT: M&A activity remains a key focus. Drug chains like CVS are looking to secure formulary positions with new PCSK9 drugs. HCIT, particularly CERN, underperformed due to soft top-line results, but strong bookings and software growth offer optimism.
Dental Services: XRAY continued its momentum after a beat and raise in 2Q, while PDCO is expected to report on August 27 and may be impacted by soft US dental equipment trends.
CROs: CRL's Analyst Day showed management optimism, but the stock is viewed as having poor risk-reward due to limited margin expansion potential.
Europe Pharma & MedTech: EU Pharma names like Merck KGaA, Bayer, GSK, and Roche are gaining investor interest due to China's currency devaluation. Coloplast is in focus due to its US DOJ investigation progress.
Japan Pharma: Biotech and specialty pharma outperformed, while generics consolidated. The market is seen as anticipating increased promotion of generic drugs in 2H.
Australia Healthcare: CSL.AX was the focus of investor discussions, with mixed guidance and earnings outlook.

Key Information

Upcoming Events

World Lung Conference (8/21): Abstracts will be released, with focus on CLVS, AZN, and ALNY.
Merck KGaA IO Pipeline Update: Expected in the coming weeks, with partner PFE noting key details will be released later this year.
OCR Shareholder Vote (8/27): Potential consolidation scenarios are being discussed.
FL MMA Rate Update (Sep 1): Expected to provide margin relief for WCG.

Investment Highlights

High FCF Yield & Discounted Stocks: MNK, ANTM, GILD, and others are highlighted for their strong free cash flow yields and discounts to peer group averages.
Dividend Growth: AMGN, ABBV, and PFE are noted for their positive dividend growth trajectories.
EPS Revisions: GILD, VRX, and others have seen positive EPS revisions, with some trading at discounts to sector averages.
Buyback Basket: Stocks like HCA, ESRX, and ISRG are included in the GS Buyback basket, with buyback yields and total returns highlighted.

Summary Table: Healthcare Conviction List

Ticker	Company Name	Date Added to CL	Weekly Perf	Current Price	Target Price	Potential Total Return	Prem/Disc to Target Price
BMY	Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.	11-Sep-12	-1.8%	62.42	80.00	30.6%	28.2%
AMGN	Amgen Inc.	1-May-13	-0.6%	168.58	211.00	27.3%	25.2%
MCK	McKesson Corp.	11-Mar-14	-1.9%	214.29	272.00	27.5%	26.9%
ENDP	Endo International Plc	14-Jul-14	2.1%	83.45	101.00	21.0%	21.0%
LPNT	LifePoint Hospitals Inc.	5-Jun-15	0.6%	81.71	100.00	22.4%	22.4%
CLVS	Clovis Oncology Inc.	19-Jul-15	-7.1%	77.25	110.00	42.4%	42.4%

Summary Table: HC Stocks with Top Dividend Growth

Ticker	Sub-sector	Market Cap ($, mn)	Rating	Ann. Payout Ratio	Div Yield 2015E	Div Growth 2015E	Div Growth 2016E	2014-16 Div CAGR
AMGN	Biotech	127,826	Buy*	33%	2.0%	30.0%	19.0%	24.0%
ABBV	Major Pharma	113,453	Buy	47%	3.1%	22.0%	7.0%	14.0%
PDCO	Dental Services	5,122	Sell	37%	1.9%	16.0%	11.0%	14.0%
DGX	Labs and Services	10,365	Neutral	31%	2.1%	14.0%	12.0%	13.0%
ABT	Medical Supplies	74,284	Buy	52%	2.0%	9.0%	13.0%	11.0%
PFE	Major Pharma	218,077	Buy	52%	3.3%	8.0%	7.0%	7.0%
BAX	Medical Supplies	22,269	Buy	52%	3.1%	4.0%	7.0%	6.0%

Summary Table: Dislocated HC Names with Positive EPS Revisions

Ticker	Sub-sector	Market Cap ($, mn)	2016E EPS Revision	P/E Disc./Prem. to Peer Group Average
GILD	Biotech (large cap)	169,068	8.5%	-54.4%
VRX	Spec & SMID Pharma	84,384	3.4%	-29.7%
WAT	Tools	10,582	1.4%	-21.2%
PFE	Pharma	218,077	0.2%	-19.4%
XRAY	Dental	7,972	0.5%	-15.2%
ZBH	Medtech	21,223	17.2%	-15.2%
AET	Managed care	41,222	0.6%	-12.8%
WBA	Drug Stores	101,080	2.9%	-9.8%
CAH	Distributors	27,856	1.3%	-6.2%
THC	Hospitals	5,189	11.3%	-4.8%

Summary Table: GS Buyback Basket

Ticker	Sub-sector	Market Cap ($, mn)	Rating	Trailing 12-month Buyback Yield	Trailing 12-month Dividend Yield	Total Yield
ANTM	Payers	39,157	Neutral	11.3%	1.8%	13.1%
HCA	Hospitals	37,720	Buy*	8.3%	0.0%	8.4%
ESRX	Supply Chain	59,809	Neutral	8.3%	0.0%	8.3%
VAR	Medical Devices	8,589	Neutral	7.3%	0.0%	7.3%
CI	Payers	37,454	Buy	7.0%	0.0%	7.0%
ISRG	Medical Devices	19,541	Buy	6.8%	0.0%	6.8%
BCR	Medical Supplies	14,767	Neutral	6.7%	0.6%	7.4%

Conclusion

The healthcare sector is experiencing a quiet period with limited news flow, leading to a focus on macroeconomic factors and market positioning. While biotech and pharma are under pressure, there are still positive fundamentals and potential catalysts in the pipeline. Investors are advised to watch for upcoming events such as the World Lung Conference and the FL MMA rate update, which could provide opportunities for re-rating. Key stocks with strong fundamentals and potential for upside include those with high FCF yields, dividend growth, and buyback activity.

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