20260331-招银国际-中国财险-02328.HK-Non-auto_CoR_sees_headroom_for_improvement_7页_941kb

报告摘要

PICC P&C (2328 HK) Summary

Core Content

PICC P&C (2328 HK) reported its FY25 financial results, highlighting a net profit increase of 25.5% YoY to RMB40.4bn, slightly below expectations. The company's Combined Ratio (CoR) improved to 97.5% year-end, with auto and non-auto segments at 95.3% and 100.8%, respectively. The non-auto segment missed its management guidance, while the auto segment met it due to stringent expense controls.

Key Financial Metrics

Net Profit: RMB40.4bn (up 25.5% YoY)
Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders: RMB40.37bn
Dividend Per Share (DPS): RMB0.68 (up 25.9% YoY)
Dividend Payout Ratio: 37.5% (FY24: 37.3%)
Earnings Per Share (EPS): RMB1.82 (actual) vs. CMBI estimate of RMB1.86
CoR: 97.5% (actual) vs. CMBI estimate of 96.6%
Auto CoR: 95.3% (actual) vs. CMBI estimate of 95.1%
Non-auto CoR: 100.8% (actual) vs. CMBI estimate of 99.0%

Main Points

Auto Segment

Auto CoR improved by 1.5pct YoY to 95.3%, meeting management guidance of <96%.
Claims ratio increased by 1.8pct YoY to 74.4%, driven by rising personal injury compensation standards and NEV penetration.
Expense ratio improved by 3.3pct YoY to 20.9%, helping to offset the claims increase.
NEV premium mix rose 4.9pct YoY to 22.1%.
Auto CoR forecasts remain stable at 95.1% / 95.0% for FY26-27E.

Non-auto Segment

Non-auto CoR was 100.8% in FY25, missing management guidance of <100%.
2H CoR for non-auto was 105.6% (CMBI estimate), down 1.8pct YoY.
Agricultural, liability, and commercial property insurance reported UW losses, with agricultural COR worsening to 112% in 2H.
Commercial property COR improved due to new product refiling under the non-auto comprehensive reform, leading to better UW profitability.
Non-auto CoR forecasts were adjusted to 99.9% / 98.2% for FY26-27E.

Investment Income

Total investment income rose 12.8% YoY to RMB38.6bn, driven by realized gains from TPL assets (RMB5.3bn) and OCI debt instruments (RMB0.7bn).
Total investment yield increased by 0.1pct YoY to 5.8%.
Equity exposure increased to 16.5% of core equity, up 5.3pct YoY.
TPL and OCI stocks rose 2.28x and 41% YoY, respectively.

Valuation and Recommendations

Target Price (TP): HK$20.00 (revised from HK$23.60)
Implied P/B (x): 1.28x FY26E P/B
Valuation Method: P/B-ROE, with a 3-year average ROE of 14.9%
Current Price: HK$14.80
Up/Downside: 35.1%
Dividend Yield: 5.6% (FY26E)
CMBI Rating: BUY (maintained)

Shareholding and Stock Data

Market Cap (HK$ mn): 329,181.6
Average 3-month Turnover (HK$ mn): 566.2
52-week High/Low (HK$): 19.37 / 13.10
Total Issued Shares (mn): 22,242
Shareholding Structure:
- JPMorgan Chase & Co: 9.0%
- Citigroup Inc.: 7.4%

Analyst Certification

The analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect personal opinions and are not influenced by compensation or conflicts of interest.
The analyst confirms no trading activity in the stock within 30 days prior to the report and no plans to trade within 3 business days after the report.

CMBIGM Ratings

BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months
HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months
SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months
NOT RATED: Stock is not rated by CMBIGM
OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark
MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark
UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark

Risk and Disclaimer

The report contains general information and is not tailored to individual investors.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The value of investments may fluctuate based on market conditions and underlying assets.
CMBIGM is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on the report.
The report is intended solely for the use of the intended recipients and cannot be reproduced or distributed without written consent.

Legal and Regulatory Notes

The report is for the use of intended recipients only and is not an offer to buy or sell securities.
In the United Kingdom, the report is provided only to persons within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 or to High Net Worth Companies, etc.
In the United States, the report is distributed solely to "major US institutional investors" and must be used through a U.S.-registered broker-dealer.
In Singapore, the report is distributed by CMBI (Singapore) Pte. Limited, an Exempt Financial Adviser regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Conclusion

PICC P&C has shown improvement in its overall CoR and investment income, though the non-auto segment missed guidance. The company maintains a BUY rating with a revised target price of HK$20.00, reflecting a more conservative outlook due to a modest earnings downgrade and a lower target P/B based on P/B-ROE. Investors are encouraged to consult financial advisors for personalized advice.

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