卡内基国际和平基金会-US-China-Relations-and-the-South-China-Sea_7页_268kb

CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST – Episode 61 Summary

Core Content

This episode of the China in the World podcast features an interview with Ambassador J. Stapleton Roy, a long-time U.S. diplomat and scholar, discussing U.S.-China relations and the strategic implications of the South China Sea disputes. The conversation is framed against the backdrop of the 2016 U.S. presidential election and the uncertainty surrounding China policy among the candidates.

Main Points

1. U.S.-China Relations: A Strategic Rivalry

• The U.S.-China relationship is described as one of the most significant in the world, with the potential for either positive development or severe consequences depending on its direction.
• A strategic rivalry is emerging, particularly in the South China Sea, which could threaten regional and global stability if not managed carefully.
• The U.S. must recognize that China's military modernization is a necessary step for its national security and is not solely a threat to U.S. interests.

2. Strategic Balance and Mutual Deterrence

• Roy emphasizes the need for a stable balance between the U.S. and China, where neither side is so dominant that it threatens the other.
• This balance should be based on mutual deterrence and the ability of both countries to protect their core interests without escalating tensions.
• The quality of the political relationship is just as important as the military balance in determining whether a threat exists.

3. South China Sea: Paracel vs. Spratly Islands

• A key distinction must be made between the Paracel and Spratly Islands.
• Paracel Islands: China has been militarily active since 1974, establishing control and militarizing the area.
• Spratly Islands: China has taken a more diplomatic approach, negotiating and showing willingness to resolve disputes through dialogue, unlike the Paracels.
• This distinction is critical for U.S. policy to avoid misinterpreting China's actions and to focus on the actual strategic implications.

4. Ambiguity in China’s South China Sea Claims

• China has not clearly defined the scope of its claims within the Nine Dash Line, leading to potential misunderstandings.
• While China claims the islands and adjacent waters, it has not clarified its stance on the broader ocean areas.
• This ambiguity can be exploited by other claimants and may lead to increased tensions if not addressed.

5. Freedom of Navigation and U.S. Policy

• The U.S. has a responsibility to uphold freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, based on international law.
• The U.S. should continue its freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs), but with care to avoid giving the impression of militarizing the region.
• These operations should be conducted transparently and not be perceived as aggressive by China or other regional actors.

6. Code of Conduct and Regional Stability

• The code of conduct (COC) is seen as a key step toward stabilizing the South China Sea.
• It is to be negotiated between China and the ten ASEAN nations, with the current Chinese foreign minister being a key participant.
• A successful COC could provide a framework for managing disputes and reducing tensions.

7. U.S.-ASEAN Relations and Regional Strategy

• ASEAN plays a crucial role in maintaining stability in East Asia by providing a platform for dialogue and cooperation.
• The U.S. should continue to engage with ASEAN, as seen under President Obama, who had personal ties to the region.
• Neglecting ASEAN would signal a lack of strategic understanding in maintaining peace and stability in the region.

Key Information

• Ambassador Roy's Background: A former U.S. ambassador to China, Singapore, and Indonesia, with over 45 years in the Foreign Service.
• U.S. Foreign Policy Challenges: Short-term challenges include uncertainty about China policy among presidential candidates, but long-term stability is more critical.
• Military Modernization: China's military development is necessary for its security, but it is also affecting the U.S. strategic dominance in the region.
• Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs): The U.S. should continue these operations but with strategic caution to avoid escalation.
• Code of Conduct (COC): A potential framework for managing South China Sea disputes, currently in negotiation.

Conclusion

Ambassador Roy advocates for a balanced, cooperative approach to U.S.-China relations, emphasizing the importance of understanding China's strategic goals and regional behavior. He stresses that the U.S. should not view the relationship solely through a military lens, but also as a political and diplomatic partnership. The distinction between the Paracel and Spratly Islands, along with the need for a clear code of conduct, are seen as essential steps toward long-term stability in the South China Sea and the broader Indo-Pacific region.