2024-06-10-ADB-促进增长的税收（英）_61页_1mb

报告摘要

Growth-Enhancing Taxes

Core Findings

Tax revenues have a persistent positive impact on economic growth, especially in emerging economies.
The effect of taxes on growth depends on the income level (advanced vs. emerging economies) and is reinforced by macroeconomic policies and institutional factors.

Key Factors Influencing Tax-Growth Nexus

Income Level:
- Emerging economies: Taxes positively and persistently boost growth (up to ~5 years).
- Advanced economies: Taxes negatively affect growth, though the effect is less persistent in flexible exchange rate regimes.
Macroeconomic and Structural Factors:
- Governance: Effective governance enhances the growth-promoting effect of taxes.
- Financial Sector: A developed financial sector helps mitigate the negative impact of taxes.
- Inflation: Low inflation strengthens the growth effect; high inflation reduces it.
- Exchange Rate Regime: Flexible regimes correlate with better tax growth impact, especially in emerging economies.
- Savings/Investments: Low savings levels amplify the positive impact of taxes; high savings weaken or negate it.

Policy Implications

Taxes can be growth-enhancing when evaluated holistically, considering factors like governance and inflation. In emerging economies, well-designed tax systems and supportive structural factors are crucial for sustainable growth.

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