国际能源署-达到1.5°C的可靠途径-20世纪20年代行动的四大支柱（英）-2023.4-17页_415kb

Summary of Credible Pathways to 1.5°C

Background: The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that global energy-related CO2 emissions reached a record high in 2022, contributing to a temperature rise of about 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels. Current policies would limit warming to around 2.5°C by 2100, which exceeds the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement. However, if countries fully implement their NDCs and net zero pledges, warming could be limited to approximately 1.7°C, but stronger near-term actions are needed to achieve the 1.5°C goal.

Four Pillars for Action:

1. Energy Decarbonization: Urgent measures include tripling renewable energy capacity additions by 2030 (reaching 1,200 GW annually), increasing electric vehicle market share to around 60% by 2030, and reducing energy-related emissions through electrification and fuel switching. Clean electricity deployment is critical, with carbon capture and storage needed to address hard-to-abate emissions.

2. Land Use and Deforestation: Achieve zero net deforestation by 2030, as emphasized in the Glasgow Leaders' Declaration, to maximize CO2 reductions from this sector. Improved forest management, reduced agricultural emissions, and afforestation are key, with the IEA's NZE Scenario requiring significant early-action planting.

3. Non-CO2 Emissions Mitigation: Rapid reduction of methane (e.g., via the Global Methane Pledge) and other short-lived climate pollutants is essential to minimize temperature overshoot. This pillar includes cutting HFCs through the Kigali Amendment and reducing N2O from agriculture and energy sectors.

4. Carbon Management: Scale up technologies like carbon capture, utilization, and removal (CDR) by 2030 to compensate for residual emissions. This includes increasing carbon capture capacity (targeting 1.2 Gt CO2 by 2030) and atmospheric removal via BECCS and DACS, which require massive investment and international collaboration.

Conclusion: A credible pathway to 1.5°C requires immediate, strong, and coordinated action across all four pillars, with full participation from countries—especially advanced and major economies—as delay risks irreversible climate tipping points and limits the availability of technological solutions.