拉丁美洲经济委员会-加勒比2021经济调查（英）-30页_768kb

Economic Survey of the Caribbean 2021 Summary

Core Content

This document presents an analysis of the economic performance of the Caribbean region in 2020 and the initial months of 2021, covering global and subregional performance, fiscal and debt dynamics, monetary policy, and external sector developments. It emphasizes the impact of the pandemic, the role of vaccine access, and the need for coordinated global action to support recovery.

Main Points

Global and Subregional Performance

• Global Economic Outlook: The global economy is projected to grow by 6.0% in 2021 and 4.9% in 2022, with emerging market and developing economies expected to grow by 6.3% in 2021 following a -2.1% contraction in 2020.
• Caribbean Performance: The Caribbean (excluding Guyana) contracted by 11.3% in 2020 and is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2021. When Guyana is included, the region's growth was -7.5% in 2020 and 4.1% in 2021.
• Sectoral Impact: Service producers were more severely affected than goods producers, with service producers declining by 13.4% in 2020 and expected to grow by 3.3% in 2021. Goods producers declined by 1.0% in 2020 and are projected to grow by 4.9% in 2021.
• Unemployment Trends: The average unemployment rate in the Caribbean rose to 12.9% in 2020, with youth unemployment particularly high in Saint Lucia and Saint Vincent. The pandemic's impact on employment was severe, especially for women in the service sector.

Fiscal and Debt Performance

• Fiscal Deficit: The overall fiscal deficit in the Caribbean increased from 2.6% of GDP in 2019 to 6.4% in 2020, with the majority of countries experiencing higher deficits. The deficit in 2021 decreased slightly to 4.6% of GDP.
• Country-Specific Deficits: The goods producers had a larger deficit increase, with Trinidad and Tobago, Belize, and Guyana being the main contributors. Service producers also saw deficit increases, with Saint Lucia and Dominica experiencing significant rises.
• Debt Levels: Public debt in the Caribbean rose sharply to 87.6% of GDP in 2020. Suriname and Belize had the most significant increases, with Suriname's debt reaching 115.5% of GDP. Guyana's debt increased by 13.2 percentage points, but its debt service ratio decreased due to oil revenue.
• Debt Service Payments: The average external debt service payments as a percentage of exports increased to 13.8% in 2020. The service producers, particularly The Bahamas, Antigua and Barbuda, and Dominica, faced the highest debt service ratios, while Guyana had the lowest.

Monetary Policy and Prices

• Monetary Policy Response: Central banks in the Caribbean focused on increasing liquidity during the pandemic. Barbados, the ECCU, and Trinidad and Tobago reduced their monetary policy rates.
• Liquidity Measures: Several countries implemented measures to increase liquidity, such as reducing reserve requirements. Suriname increased its reserve requirement at the end of 2020 in response to inflationary pressures.
• Money Supply: M2 (narrow money plus savings and time deposits) expanded in the Caribbean, reaching 70.2% of GDP in 2020. Barbados and Belize saw the largest increases in M2.
• Domestic Credit: Domestic credit to the private and public sectors increased in 2020. Credit to the private sector reached 49.6% of GDP, while credit to the public sector reached 21.1% of GDP, with Suriname being the main driver for public sector credit growth.
• Inflation Trends: Inflation in the Caribbean was mostly flat in 2020, with a slight uptick in early 2021. Suriname experienced significant inflation due to rising oil prices and currency depreciation. Caribbean inflation returned to pre-pandemic levels of around 1% by November 2020.

Key Information

• Vaccine Access: The principal factor affecting economic recovery was the disparity in vaccine access among Caribbean countries.
• Global Coordination: The authors stress the importance of global coordination to ensure vaccine equity and support economic recovery.
• IMF Support: The proposed $650 billion General Allocation of Special Drawing Rights by the IMF is highlighted as a key initiative to provide liquidity and support the region.
• Debt Restructuring: Belize secured a significant debt for nature swap, reducing its debt by around $200 million and using the savings for marine conservation.
• Challenges: The region faces challenges such as the risk of new variants, supply chain disruptions, fuel price fluctuations, and liquidity constraints.
• Sustainable Recovery: The document advocates for coordinated and well-directed policies to ensure a sustainable, inclusive, and green recovery.

Tables and Figures

• Table 1: Global economic performance and prospects (2019-2021)
• Table 2: Caribbean GDP growth rates (2020-2021)
• Table 3: Fiscal deficit (2017-2021)
• Table 4: External debt service payment ratios (2015-2020)
• Figure 1: Unemployment rates (2010-2020)
• Figure 2: Caribbean unemployment rates by age and sex (2010-2019)
• Figure 3: Total public debt (2020)
• Figure 4: M2 and domestic credit to the private and public sector (2018-2019)
• Figure 5: Inflation and oil prices (July 2019-July 2020)

Conclusion

The Caribbean region is on a path to recovery, but the process is uneven and faces significant challenges. The pandemic has exacerbated existing economic vulnerabilities, and while some countries have shown resilience, others are still in crisis. The document underscores the need for coordinated global action, sustainable fiscal policies, and effective monetary measures to ensure a durable recovery for all Caribbean economies.