2015年-世界发展银行全球_Migration_in_Vietnam___New_Evidence_from_Recent_Surveys_35页_1mb

Summary of "Migration in Vietnam: New Evidence from Recent Surveys"

Core Content

This paper investigates the determinants of individual migration decisions in Vietnam, utilizing data from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey (VHLSS) of 2010 and 2012. The study highlights the increasing geographical labor mobility in Vietnam, driven by economic growth and structural changes. It also explores the factors influencing migration, including individual, household, and community-level characteristics, as well as the role of remittances in redistributing the benefits of migration.

Main Objectives

• To understand the dynamics of individual migration decisions in Vietnam.
• To identify the key factors that influence migration patterns, including education, ethnicity, and household characteristics.
• To assess the impact of migration on poverty and economic development.

Key Findings

Migration Determinants

• Individual Characteristics: The probability of migration is strongly associated with age and education. Young people and those with post-secondary education are more likely to migrate.
• Household Characteristics: Households with better-educated heads, female-headed households, and those with higher youth dependency ratios are more likely to have migrants.
• Community-Level Factors: Members of ethnic minority groups are much less likely to migrate, even after controlling for household and commune-level characteristics. This lack of mobility is a leading candidate to explain the persistence of poverty among ethnic minorities.
• Destination Influence: Migrants moving to Ho Chi Minh City or Hanoi have broadly similar characteristics to those moving to other destinations, but the ethnic minority "penalty" remains strong.

Migration Trends

• Migration is a key response of households and individuals to economic opportunities and livelihood difficulties.
• The proportion of internal migrants increased significantly over the years, especially with the economic reforms in the 1990s.
• The majority of migrants move for work, followed by marriage, study, and other purposes.
• Migration to major cities is more common than to other internal destinations, with about 42% of migrants moving to Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City.

Recent Migrants

• The study focuses on a narrow cohort of recent migrants—those present in the household in 2010 but who have moved away by 2012.
• These recent migrants are more likely to be from middle-income households and have higher education levels.
• Migration is more common among males than females, and among Kinh and Hoa ethnic groups compared to ethnic minorities.

Economic and Social Implications

• Migration contributes to increasing and stabilizing incomes for both migrants and their origin households.
• Remittances are a mechanism for redistributing the net gains from migration, which can help alleviate poverty.
• Social factors, such as the "trigger price" for migration, are important as they reflect the expected income differential between origin and destination, which is often much higher than the direct financial cost.
• Migration is influenced by the cost of moving, expected income differentials, disparities in public services, and demographic characteristics.
• The study also highlights the role of global climate change in affecting migration patterns, as some areas are becoming less suitable for agriculture due to environmental factors.

Methodology

• The study uses a multinomial logit model to distinguish migration by broad destination.
• It compares data from VHLSS 2010 and 2012 to focus on recent migrants.
• The paper distinguishes between work migration and non-work migration, with a focus on work migration in the main analysis.
• It also explores the relationship between migration and remittances, emphasizing the need to consider them together in empirical analysis.

Conclusion

• The study provides new insights into migration patterns and determinants in Vietnam.
• It underscores the importance of education and economic opportunities in driving migration.
• The persistent lower mobility of ethnic minorities is highlighted as a key factor in the continued poverty among these groups.
• The paper contributes to the understanding of labor and social policy in Vietnam, suggesting that promoting labor mobility and remittances is beneficial for development.

Key Information

• Data Sources: VHLSS 2010 and 2012, conducted by the General Statistics Office with technical support from the World Bank.
• Sample Size: 26,015 individual observations, of which 1,974 are considered migrants.
• Migration Types: Work migration (51.8% of recent migrants) and non-work migration (e.g., marriage, study).
• Migration Destinations: 42% of migrants go to Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City; 48% go to other internal destinations.
• Ethnicity and Migration: Ethnic minorities are significantly less likely to migrate, indicating structural barriers and limited access to opportunities.
• Age Distribution: The modal age of migration is 20 years, with younger individuals more likely to migrate.
• Education and Migration: There is an inverse-U shaped relationship between education and migration, with middle-level education (secondary school) associated with the highest migration probability.

References

• Stark and Bloom (1985), Stark and Taylor (1991), Borjas (2005)
• Dang et al. (1997), Phan and Coxhead (2010), Nguyen and McPeak (2010)
• Nguyen et al. (2008, 2011, 2015), Fukase (2013), Niimi et al. (2009)
• Rapoport and Docquier (2006), McKenzie and Sasin (2006), Adams and Page (2005)

Structure of the Paper

• Section 1: Introduction and background on migration in Vietnam.
• Section 2: Review of migration literature, including traditional and behavioral models.
• Section 3: Data description and methodology.
• Section 4: Analysis of migration patterns in Vietnam.
• Section 5: Estimation methods and empirical results.
• Section 6: Conclusion and policy implications.