20240314-IMF-Climate_Variability_and_Worldwide_Migration_Empirical_Evidence_and_Projections_32页_1mb

Climate Variability and Worldwide Migration: Empirical Evidence and Projections

Summary
This working paper analyzes bilateral migration flows in response to climate variability and projects future trends under different climate and socio-economic scenarios. The main findings include:

1. Climate Impact: A 1°C increase in decadal temperature increases bilateral migration rates by 1.2%. This effect is robust across specifications and time periods but is secondary to population growth as the primary driver of migration trends.

2. Decomposition of Migration Flows: Projections (2030-2060) indicate significant increases in global migration (73–133 million annually), but the effects are largely attributed to population growth. Climate change alone contributes marginally (<5 million) to future migration flows.

3. Regional and Bilateral Patterns:

   • Migration from Africa and Asia is expected to rise, while flows toward Europe, particularly from Latin America, may decrease.
   • Examples: Africa’s migration to Europe may nearly double, and Latin America’s internal migration to North America increases by ~50%.

4. Methodological Approach:

   • Empirical analysis uses a gravity model with decade-long climate and migration data from 1960-2010.
   • Projections combine climate scenarios (RCPs) with population scenarios (SSPs) and bootstrap confidence intervals to account for uncertainty.

5. Policy Implications:

   • Restrictions on cross-border migration may exacerbate climate vulnerability.
   • Policies promoting women's empowerment and economic development in origin countries could mitigate future migration pressures.

Key Recommendations:

• Focus on adaptation policies in climate-vulnerable regions.
• Address population growth in source countries to reduce migration pressure.
• Prepare for regional migration flows despite limited direct climate-induced effects.