20240410-国盛证券-21世纪教育-01598.HK-新校区落地+育英收入并表_业绩稳步释放_3页_532kb

Highlights & Key Analysis:

1. Overall Performance:

   • Revenue surged to RMB 42 billion in 2023 (+3466% YoY), driven by rapid growth in both education and non-education segments.
   • Education Segment: Generated RMB 27 billion revenue (+2090%) primarily due to the launch of the GaoYi new campus, which added ~8,200 students (total students reached 23,494, +186%). Tuition per student increased by 90% to RMB 9,151, while accommodation fees rose by 173% to RMB 1,240.
   • Non-Education Segment: Achieved RMB 15 billion revenue (+6956%), benefiting from the inclusion of Yu Ying High School's full-year income (+1863%). Growth in new college entrance exams (+493%) and high school education offset minor declines in other areas.

2. Financial Indicators:

   • Profitability: Net profit after dilution reached RMB 39.9 million (+4619% YoY), with net profit margin improving by 7.5 percentage points to 9.5%.
   • Cost Structure: Gross margin declined to 39.3% YoY (due to higher operating costs post-new campus launch), while SG&A increased significantly (62.4% YoY) but was offset by lower admin costs (1.97% YoY).

3. Outlook & Targets:

   • The company expects sustained revenue growth through 2026 (CAGR of ~35% YoY), with EPS projected to rise from RMB 0.005 in 2024 to RMB 0.008 by 2026.
   • Key Risks: Construction delays at new campuses, increased competition, and talent attrition remain potential concerns.

Key Points for Decision-Making:

• The new campus strategy is a major driver of revenue growth, though profitability warrants monitoring.
• Diversification into high-margin K-12 segments (like Yu Ying High School) may mitigate reliance on vocational education competition.
• Maintain a cautiously optimistic growth outlook, tracking campus occupancy and cost management.
  Rating: Increase (Maintain)