20150925-大华银行-FX_Insights_11页_949kb

报告摘要

Global Economics & Markets Research Summary

Core Content

This document is a FX Insights report by UOB Group, dated Friday, 25 September 2015, providing an analysis of various currency pairs and their outlooks for the short and medium term. The report includes current price levels, technical indicators, economic data, and UOB's forecasts for the next few quarters.

Key Currency Pairs and Views

USD/SGD: 1.4235

24-Hour View: USD/SGD made a short-term high of 1.4300, but the pair finished near 1.4220. A bounce to 1.4275 is expected, with 1.4310 as a cap for a move lower.
1-3 Weeks View: Bullish outlook. USD needs to break above 1.4300 to invalidate a potential double-top. The target for a break above 1.4300 is 1.4360, followed by 1.4400.
Support & Resistance: S1: 1.4200, S2: 1.4140; R1: 1.4300, R2: 1.4360

EUR/SGD: 1.5920

24-Hour View: EUR/SGD tested the 1.6110 resistance but failed to break above. The pair is expected to trade sideways between 1.5850 and 1.6110.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. EUR/SGD is expected to remain volatile within a range of 1.5700 to 1.6110.
Support & Resistance: S1: 1.5850, S2: 1.5730; R1: 1.6000, R2: 1.6115

GBP/SGD: 2.1685

24-Hour View: GBP/SGD tested the 2.1820 resistance but failed. The pair is expected to trade between 2.1600 and 2.1820.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. GBP is expected to trade within a range of 2.1425 to 2.1950.
Support & Resistance: S1: 2.1600, S2: 2.1550; R1: 2.1820, R2: 2.1950

AUD/SGD: 0.9990

24-Hour View: AUD/SGD is expected to trade sideways between 0.9930 and 1.0030.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. The pair is expected to trade within a range of 0.9900 to 1.0110.
Support & Resistance: S1: 0.9940, S2: 0.9900; R1: 1.0050, R2: 1.0110

JPY/SGD: 1.1855

24-Hour View: JPY/SGD is expected to trade between 1.1800 and 1.1900.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. The pair is expected to remain volatile within the range of 1.1750 to 1.1980.
Support & Resistance: S1: 1.1800, S2: 1.1750; R1: 1.1900, R2: 1.1980

USD/MYR: 4.3750

24-Hour View: USD/MYR is expected to test the resistance at 4.4000, with a target of 4.4200.
1-3 Weeks View: Bullish. USD strength may be seen as a corrective rebound, with the potential for further gains.
Support & Resistance: S1: 4.3400, S2: 4.3100; R1: 4.4000, R2: 4.4200

USD/THB: 36.26

24-Hour View: USD/THB is expected to test the resistance at 36.50, with a target of 36.50.
1-3 Weeks View: Bullish. The USD/THB pair may have seen most of its strength, with a target of 36.50.
Support & Resistance: S1: 36.10, S2: 35.90; R1: 36.37, R2: 36.50

USD/CNH: 6.4175

24-Hour View: USD/CNH is expected to trade sideways between 6.4100 and 6.4270.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. USD/CNH is not ready for a directional move and is expected to consolidate between 6.3850 and 6.4450.
Support & Resistance: S1: 6.4000, S2: 6.3850; R1: 6.4250, R2: 6.4450

EUR/USD: 1.1175

24-Hour View: EUR/USD is expected to trade between 1.1130 and 1.1230.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. EUR/USD is expected to trade between 1.1085 and 1.1300.
Support & Resistance: S1: 1.1130, S2: 1.1085; R1: 1.1230, R2: 1.1300

GBP/USD: 1.5230

24-Hour View: GBP/USD is expected to test the support at 1.5170 and could retest the year's low near 0.6890/95.
1-3 Weeks View: Bearish. The pair is expected to move lower with a target at 1.5170.
Support & Resistance: S1: 1.5170, S2: 1.5090; R1: 1.5290, R2: 1.5340

AUD/USD: 0.7015

24-Hour View: AUD/USD is expected to trade between 0.6960 and 0.7050.
1-3 Weeks View: Bearish. The pair is expected to retest the year's low near 0.6890/95.
Support & Resistance: S1: 0.6960, S2: 0.6895; R1: 0.7050, R2: 0.7095

NZD/USD: 0.6335

24-Hour View: NZD/USD is expected to trade between 0.6290 and 0.6375.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. The pair is expected to consolidate but with a bias on the upside.
Support & Resistance: S1: 0.6290, S2: 0.6235; R1: 0.6375, R2: 0.6455

USD/JPY: 120.25

24-Hour View: USD/JPY is expected to trade between 119.00 and 121.30.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. The pair is expected to consolidate between 119.00 and 121.30.
Support & Resistance: S1: 119.65, S2: 119.00; R1: 120.95, R2: 121.30

Economic Data and Indicators

USD/SGD

GDP QoQ: +0.6% in 1Q15, +3.7% in 2Q15 (final estimate: 25-Sep-15)
PCE Price Index YoY: +0.3% in Jun, +0.3% in Jul (Jul release: 28-Sep-15)
Core PCE Price Index YoY: +1.3% in Jun, +1.2% in Jul (Jul release: 28-Sep-15)
Unemployment: +5.3% in Jun, +5.3% in Jul (Aug release: 02-Oct-15)
Nonfarm Payroll: +245k in Jul (Sep release: 02-Oct-15)
UOB FX Forecast: end 4Q15: 1.43, end 1Q16: 1.45, end 2Q16: 1.46, end 3Q16: 1.44
UOB 3M SIBOR Forecast: end 4Q15: 1.15%, end 1Q16: 1.20%, end 2Q16: 1.25%, end 3Q16: 1.35%

EUR/USD

Refinancing Rate: 0.05% (Last change: -0.10% in Sep 2014)
Next ECB Meeting: 22-Oct-15
GDP QoQ: +0.5% in 1Q15, -1.2% in 2Q15 (3Q15 release: 13-Nov-15)
CPI Core YoY: +0.1% in Jun, +0.0% in Jul (Aug release: 30-Sep-15)
Industrial Production MoM: +1.1% in Jun, -0.6% in Jul (Aug release: 30-Sep-15)
UOB FX Forecast: end 4Q15: 1.12, end 1Q16: 1.13, end 2Q16: 1.13, end 3Q16: 1.14
UOB Refinancing Rate Forecast: end 4Q15: 0.05%, end 1Q16: 0.05%, end 2Q16: 0.05%, end 3Q16: 0.05%

GBP/USD

Bank Rate: 0.50% (Last change: -0.50% in Mar 2009)
Next BOE Meeting: 08-Oct-15
GDP QoQ: +0.4% in 1Q15, +0.7% in 2Q15 (2Q15 release: 08-Oct-15)
CPI YoY: +0.1% in Jul, +0.2% in Jul (Aug release: 13-Oct-15)
Unemployment: +5.6% in Jun, +5.3% in Jul (Aug release: 14-Oct-15)
UOB FX Forecast: end 4Q15: 1.58, end 1Q16: 1.60, end 2Q16: 1.61, end 3Q16: 1.62
UOB Bank Rate Forecast: end 4Q15: 0.5%, end 1Q16: 0.75%, end 2Q16: 0.75%, end 3Q16: 0.75%

AUD/USD

Cash Rate: 2.00% (Last change: -0.25% in May 2015)
Next RBA Meeting: 06-Oct-15
GDP QoQ: +0.9% in 1Q15, +0.2% in 2Q15 (3Q15 release: 02-Dec-15)
CPI YoY: +1.3% in 1Q15, +1.5% in 2Q15 (Aug release: 28-Oct-15)
UOB FX Forecast: end 4Q15: 0.71, end 1Q16: 0.71, end 2Q16: 0.70, end 3Q16: 0.69
UOB Cash Rate Forecast: end 4Q15: 2.00%, end 1Q16: 2.00%, end 2Q16: 2.00%, end 3Q16: 2.00%

NZD/USD

Official Cash Rate: 2.75% (Last change: -0.25% in Aug 2015)
Next RBNZ Meeting: 30-Oct-15
GDP QoQ: +0.2% in 1Q15 (3Q15 release: 17-Dec-15)
CPI QoQ: -0.3% in 1Q15 (3Q15 release: 04-Nov-15)
UOB FX Forecast: end 4Q15: 0.62, end 1Q16: 0.61, end 2Q16: 0.60, end 3Q16: 0.60
UOB Official Cash Rate Forecast: end 4Q15: 2.50%, end 1Q16: 2.50%, end 2Q16: 2.50%, end 3Q16: 2.50%

USD/JPY

Overnight Call Rate: 0.0 - 0.1%
Next BOJ Meeting: 07-Oct-15
GDP QoQ Annualized: +4.5% in 1Q15, -1.2% in 2Q15 (3Q15 release: 16-Nov-15)
CPI Core YoY: +0.1% in Jun, +0.0% in Jul (Aug release: 30-Sep-15)
UOB FX Forecast: end 4Q15: 124, end 1Q16: 126, end 2Q16: 127, end 3Q16: 128
UOB Overnight Call Rate Forecast: end 4Q15: 0.0-0.1%, end 1Q16: 0.0-0.1%, end 2Q16: 0.0-0.1%, end 3Q16: 0.0-0.1%

Summary of Views

FX Pairs	Spot	Outlook	Target	Support	Resistance
USD/SGD	1.4235	Bullish	1.4360	1.4140	1.4300
EUR/SGD	1.5920	Neutral	-	1.5730	1.6115
GBP/SGD	2.1685	Neutral	-	2.1550	2.1950
AUD/SGD	0.9990	Neutral	-	0.9900	1.0110
JPY/SGD	1.1855	Neutral	-	1.1750	1.1980
USD/MYR	4.3750	Bullish	4.4200	4.3100	4.4000
USD/THB	36.26	Bullish	36.50	35.90	36.37
USD/CNH	6.4175	Neutral	-	6.3850	6.4450
EUR/USD	1.1175	Neutral	-	1.1085	1.1300
GBP/USD	1.5230	Bearish	1.5170	1.5090	1.5340
AUD/USD	0.7015	Neutral	0.6895	0.7095	0.7050
NZD/USD	0.6335	Neutral	-	0.6235	0.6455