20150914-大华银行-FX_Insights_11页_942kb

Global Economics & Markets Research Summary

Core Content

This document provides a detailed analysis of various currency pairs and their expected movements based on recent market trends, economic indicators, and upcoming central bank meetings. The focus is on the USD/SGD pair with additional insights on EUR/SGD, GBP/SGD, AUD/SGD, JPY/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/THB, USD/CNH, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD. The report also includes UOB Group's forecasts for FX rates and interest rates for the upcoming quarters.

Main Views

USD/SGD: 1.4120

• 24-Hour View: The pair traded lower, closing at 1.4105. The USD/SGD is expected to trade within a range of 1.4088 - 1.4159 today.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral outlook with downward pressure. A move back above 1.4175 would indicate diminished downward risk.
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 1.4055, 1.3975, 1.3935/40
  • Resistance: 1.4175, 1.4240

EUR/SGD: 1.6000

• 24-Hour View: The pair is expected to trade within a range of 1.5950 - 1.6050.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral outlook. The pair could extend upwards to 1.6100 but a clear break is unlikely.
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 1.5950, 1.5860
  • Resistance: 1.6050, 1.6100

GBP/SGD: 2.1795

• 24-Hour View: Mixed outlook with a bias towards a move higher to 2.1870.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral outlook. The pair is expected to trade within a broad range of 2.1590 - 2.1960.
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 2.1680, 2.1590
  • Resistance: 2.1870, 2.1960

AUD/SGD: 1.0005

• 24-Hour View: Sidewalk trading expected between 0.9970 and 1.0050.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral outlook. A break above 1.0110 is needed for a sustained up-move.
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 0.9970, 0.9910
  • Resistance: 1.0050, 1.0110

JPY/SGD: 1.1695

• 24-Hour View: Expected to dip to 1.1670, with a rebound to 1.1750.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral outlook. The current weakness is part of a broader consolidation.
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 1.1630, 1.1550
  • Resistance: 1.1750, 1.1860

USD/MYR: 4.3170

• 1-3 Weeks View: Bullish outlook with early signs of topping. A clear move above 4.3750 is unlikely.
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 4.2800, 4.2700
  • Resistance: 4.3500, 4.3750

USD/THB: 36.05

• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral outlook with a corrective pull-back expected to extend lower to 35.83/88.
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 35.95, 35.85
  • Resistance: 36.16, 36.26

USD/CNH: 6.4155

• 24-Hour View: Sidewalk consolidation expected between 6.3990 and 6.4250.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Bearish outlook with another leg lower towards 6.3500 not ruled out.
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 6.3790, 6.3500
  • Resistance: 6.4750, 6.4760

EUR/USD: 1.1340

• 24-Hour View: Upward pressure is incomplete. A move back below 1.1290/95 would indicate a reversal.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Bullish outlook with a target of 1.1475.
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 1.1295, 1.1255
  • Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1475

GBP/USD: 1.5440

• 24-Hour View: Mixed outlook with a bias for a move higher to 1.5490.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral outlook. A break above 1.5510 is needed for a sustained up-move.
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 1.5390, 1.5340
  • Resistance: 1.5490, 1.5510

AUD/USD: 0.7085

• 24-Hour View: Sidewalk trading expected between 0.7035 and 0.7120.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral outlook with a potential short-term bottom.
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 0.7035, 0.6990
  • Resistance: 0.7120, 0.7205

Key Indicators and Data

Summary of Views

Additional Notes

• The Federal Reserve is expected to hike interest rates by 25bps at its upcoming meeting.
• The University of Michigan Sentiment index showed a significant decline, indicating a negative outlook for the dollar.
• The report highlights the importance of key support and resistance levels in determining future movements.
• UOB Group provides forecasts for various FX pairs and interest rates, with the expectation of continued consolidation and potential corrections in some pairs.