OECD-分析新冠疫情影响下的全球经济形势（英文）-2020.9-16页_655kb

OECD Interim Economic Outlook Summary

Core Content

The OECD Interim Economic Outlook, published on 16 September 2020, provides an analysis of the global economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and outlines key policy recommendations for recovery. The report highlights the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook and the critical role of policy in shaping a resilient and sustainable recovery.

Key Messages

• Policymakers have effectively managed the initial shock of the pandemic by implementing timely and substantial measures.
• Economic activity has rebounded as confinement measures eased, but the momentum of recovery is slowing, and consumer and business confidence remains low.
• Policy continues to matter: To boost confidence, governments should focus on improving healthcare systems, maintaining fiscal and monetary support, and assisting individuals and businesses with ongoing adjustments.
• Recovery plans are a unique opportunity to drive sustainable, inclusive, and green growth.

Uncertain Outlook

The report presents two scenarios for the global economy:

• Upside Scenario: Assumes faster improvement in confidence due to mild containment measures or rapid deployment of effective treatments/vaccines.
• Downside Scenario: Assumes prolonged weak confidence, intensified outbreaks, or more stringent confinement measures, leading to a slower recovery.

These projections are based on the NiGEM global macroeconomic model, and the difference between the November 2019 and September 2020 forecasts for 2021Q4 GDP is expressed in 2015 prices and weighted on a PPP basis.

Economic Projections

Uneven Recovery in Consumption

• Retail sales and household spending have shown a rebound, but the recovery is uneven across countries.
• Consumer confidence remains weak, and people continue to avoid going out to protect themselves and others from the virus.

Investment and Manufacturing

• Investment has rebounded but remains subdued.
• Manufacturing and trade have been significantly affected, with industrial production and global merchandise trade showing declines compared to January 2020.
• Travel restrictions have increased service-trade costs, highlighting the impact on global supply chains.

Employment Prospects

• Employment expectations are dire, with firms reporting negative outlooks.
• Unemployment rates have risen sharply, especially in the Euro area and United States.
• Support for job creation is emphasized, with a focus on targeting those most in need and helping people find new employment.

Policy Recommendations

1. Avoid repeating fiscal mistakes from the last crisis:

   • Maintain fiscal support to avoid premature withdrawal.
   • Monitor the difference between GDP and trend to ensure economic stability.

2. Limit bankruptcies and unemployment:

   • Support businesses to reduce the number of bankruptcies.
   • Protect employment through targeted interventions.

3. Help people find new jobs:

   • Invest in job training for low-skilled adults.
   • Support employment transitions to ensure inclusive growth.

4. Seize the opportunity for a green recovery:

   • Fiscal support is strong, with significant investments in recovery packages.
   • Policy support should favor green and digital transitions, aligning with long-term sustainability goals.

Key Takeaways

• The economic recovery is uncertain and dependent on multiple factors including the virus, policy responses, and public behavior.
• Policymakers have a critical role in shaping the recovery.
• Continued support is necessary, with a focus on job creation, confidence-building, and green and digital investments.