20170911-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_17页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary
Core Content Overview
This document is a regional economic and stock analysis report from Monday, 11 September 2017, focusing on China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. It includes economic updates, stock recommendations, corporate events, and financial data for selected companies.
China: Economic Highlights
Inflation
- CPI and PPI: Inflation data for August 2017 showed the headline CPI rose to 1.8% yoy, beating estimates, while PPI increased to 6.3% yoy, up from 5.5% yoy in July.
- Drivers: Rising food prices (especially eggs and vegetables) and stronger commodity prices contributed to the CPI and PPI increases.
- Core Inflation: Core inflation remained stable at 2.2% yoy, indicating no immediate pressure on the PBOC to change monetary policy.
- Future Outlook: Continued supply-side reforms may support commodity prices, leading to margin compression for downstream manufacturers.
Trade
- Export Growth: August exports grew by 5.5% yoy, below expectations and lower than the previous month's 7.2%.
- Import Growth: Imports rose by 13.3% yoy, driven by higher commodity prices, but may moderate as the economy de-levers.
- Trade Surplus: The trade surplus decreased to US$42b from US$46.7b in July.
- Market Impact: The appreciation of the RMB against the USD is expected to further weaken export performance.
Indonesia: Company Update
Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ)
- Stock Recommendation: BUY with a target price of Rp1,340 (18.6% upside from current price).
- Key Factors:
- Focus on affordable housing developments, capturing a stable demand segment.
- 40% of developments priced below Rp1b/unit, and 30% between Rp1b-2b/unit, making them more accessible to first-time homebuyers.
- Diversified portfolio across 33 cities with 75 projects, including residential and high-rise developments.
- Net debt to equity ratio remains at a healthy level at 24.9%.
- Strong pre-sales performance, with a 56% discount to RNAV.
- Financials:
- Revenue in 1H17 was Rp2,826b, with net income of Rp340b (+10% yoy).
- 2Q17 net income dropped to Rp117b (-43% qoq), but revenue and gross profit increased by +22% and +32% respectively.
- EBITDA and operating profit rose in 2Q17, although operating expenses increased sharply.
Malaysia: Sector Update
- Banking Sector: 2Q17 earnings were in line with expectations.
- Earnings Growth: Moderated due to normalizing provisions and easing net interest margins (NIM).
- Recommendation: Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
Singapore: Small/Mid Cap Highlights
Health Management International (HMI)
- Stock Recommendation: BUY with a target of S$0.83 (upside of +21.1%).
- Key Points: Resilient operations and strong earnings visibility.
Thailand: Company Update
Amata Corporation (AMATA)
- Stock Recommendation: BUY with a target of Bt24.50.
- Earnings: Earnings target was rolled over to 2018.
- Positive View: Maintained due to strong performance and growth potential.
Key Indices
| Index | Prev Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 21797.8 | 0.1 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 10.3 |
| S&P 500 | 2461.4 | -0.1 | -0.4 | 0.8 | 9.9 |
| FTSE 100 | 7377.6 | -0.3 | -0.8 | 0.9 | 3.3 |
| AS30 | 5739.4 | -0.2 | -0.8 | -0.1 | 0.4 |
| CSI 300 | 3826.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 4.9 | 15.6 |
| FSSTI | 3228.6 | 0.0 | -1.5 | -1.6 | 12.1 |
| HSCEI | 11149.6 | 0.5 | -1.2 | 5.5 | 18.7 |
| HSI | 27668.5 | 0.5 | -1.0 | 2.9 | 25.8 |
| JCI | 5857.1 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 1.6 | 10.6 |
| KLCI | 1779.9 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 8.4 |
| Nikkei 225 | 19274.8 | -0.6 | -2.1 | -2.3 | 0.8 |
| SET | 1635.6 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 4.8 | 6.0 |
| TWSE | 10610.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 2.7 | 14.7 |
| BDI | 1332 | 2.8 | 12.2 | 17.0 | 38.6 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2735 | -0.1 | 2.0 | 5.8 | -14.5 |
| Brent Crude | 54 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | -5.1 |
Top Picks
BUY Recommendations
- CSPC: Target price HK$15.24 (upside +21.1%)
- Hengan Int'l: Target price HK$76.00 (upside +10.0%)
- Ace Hardware: Target price IJ$1,300.00 (upside +22.6%)
- Waskita Karya: Target price IJ$3,000.00 (upside +42.9%)
- Ekovest: Target price MK$1.45 (upside +29.5%)
- OCBC: Target price SP$13.38 (upside +23.0%)
- Siam Cement: Target price TB$600.00 (upside +20.0%)
SELL Recommendations
- Great Wall Motor: Target price HK$5.50 (downside -44.7%)
- UMW Holdings: Target price MK$4.80 (downside -11.9%)
Key Assumptions
| Country | 2016 | 2017F | 2018F |
|---|---|---|---|
| US | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Euro Zone | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Japan | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Singapore | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| Malaysia | 4.2 | 5.0 | 4.9 |
| Thailand | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| Indonesia | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.5 |
| Hong Kong | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| China | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.3 |
| Brent (US$/bbl) | 45 | 52 | 55 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2,653 | 2,600 | 2,400 |
Corporate Events
| Event | Venue | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst Marketing on Indonesia Construction Sector | Kuala Lumpur | 11-12 Sep |
| Analyst Marketing on Indonesia Construction Sector | Singapore | 13 Sep |
| Roadshow with Globetronics Technology | Hong Kong | 12 Sep |
| Tea Session with Cityeon Holdings | Singapore | 12 Sep |
| Conference Call with Thai Union Group | Bangkok | 13 Sep |
| Conference Call with Kasikornbank | Bangkok | 15 Sep |
| Roadshow with Cahya Mata Sarawak | Hong Kong | 18 Sep |
| Analyst Marketing on Singapore Telcos and Banking Sectors | Kuala Lumpur | 18-19 Sep |
| Roadshow with China Yongda Automobiles Services Holdings | Canada/US | 25-29 Sep |
| Roadshow with BBI Life Science Corp | Hong Kong | 28 Sep |
| Asian Gems Conference 2017 | Singapore | 10-11 Oct |
| UOB Kay Hian Annual Regional Strategy Conference | Kuala Lumpur | 13 Nov |
CTRA Financials and Valuation
Financial Highlights
- Net Profit (2017F): Rp1,077b
- EBITDA (2017F): Rp2,123b
- Operating Profit (2017F): Rp1,853b
- Net Profit (Adj.) (2017F): Rp1,077b
- EPS (2017F): Rp58.1
- PE (2017F): 19.4
- P/B (2017F): 1.5
- EV/EBITDA (2017F): 12.3
- Dividend Yield (2017F): 0.8%
Valuation Table
| Metric | Value (Rpb) |
|---|---|
| Total Property Value | 66,651 |
| Add Cash | 4,202 |
| Less Net Advances | 6,736 |
| Less Debt | 7,724 |
| RNAV (Rpb) | 56,393 |
| RNAV/share (Rp) | 3,042 |
| Discount to RNAV | 56% |
| Target Price (Rp) | 1,340 |
Conclusion
The report highlights that China's inflation and trade data remain mixed, with CPI and PPI beating expectations but export growth slowing. Ciputra Development (CTRA) is positioned well in the Indonesian affordable housing market with strong pre-sales and a diversified portfolio. The top picks include a mix of BUY and SELL recommendations across various sectors, with an emphasis on the potential for growth in the construction and real estate segments. Key assumptions about GDP growth and commodity prices are also provided to support the investment outlook.
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