20141212-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_17页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary

Overview

Date: Friday, 12 December 2014
Summary: This document provides a market update and analysis for several Asian countries and key financial metrics for specific companies. It outlines the current market sentiment, investment recommendations, and financial performance for the regions and firms covered.

Core Content

China

Market Sentiment: Investors are more positive on China, expecting the market to benefit from regional funds' portfolio reallocation in 2015.
Monetary Policy: Further monetary easing is anticipated, with A-shares expected to outperform H-shares due to better representation of new-economy stocks and the Shanghai-Hong Kong Connect.
Valuation: Chinese equities trade at a 12-month forward PE of 9.9x, which is considered undemanding for an economy growing at 6–7%.
Key Points:
- High cost of funding in China (BBB+ rated corporate bonds yield 14.5%) compared to Europe (0.9%).
- The PBoC may cut the benchmark lending rate by 25bp twice and possibly reduce RRR before Chinese New Year.
- Sectors recommended for rotation include consumer discretionary, while caution is advised for Macau gaming due to anti-corruption concerns.
- The document emphasizes that the recent rally in A-shares could lead to more targeted easing.

Indonesia

Company Focus: Bank BJB (BJBR IJ) is highlighted with a BUY recommendation.
Catalysts: New management team and improved asset quality are expected to drive share price performance.
Dividend Yield: Attractive dividend yield of 7% is anticipated.
Valuation: Target price is Rp880, or 1.1x 2015F P/B.
Key Financials:
- Net interest income: RM1,042m (2015F)
- Net profit: RM1,042m (2015F)
- EPS: Rp107.4
- P/B: 1.1x
- Dividend Yield: 6.9%
- Payout Ratio: 50.0%

Main Points

Key Indices (as of 9 Dec 2014)

Index	Prev Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	17596.3	0.4	-1.7	-0.1	6.2
S&P 500	2035.3	0.5	-1.8	-0.2	10.1
FTSE 100	6461.7	-0.6	-3.3	-2.5	-4.3
AS30	5207.4	-0.6	-2.6	-4.3	-2.7
CSI 300	3183.0	-1.2	2.5	22.7	36.6
FSSTI	3318.7	-0.2	0.4	1.1	4.8
HSCEI	11255.4	-1.0	-2.0	4.9	4.1
HSI	23312.5	-0.9	-2.2	-2.6	0.0
JCI	5152.7	-0.2	-0.5	2.1	20.6
KLCI	1744.6	-1.2	-0.1	-3.9	-6.6
KOSPI	1916.6	-1.5	-3.5	-2.6	-4.7
Nikkei 225	17257.4	-0.9	-3.5	0.4	5.9
SET	1526.8	-2.1	-4.2	-2.3	17.6
TWSE	9013.1	-0.2	-2.3	1.1	4.7
BDI	887	-2.6	-13.0	-35.3	-61.0
CPO (RM/mt)	2141	-1.5	0.3	-3.9	-16.8
Nymex Crude	60	-1.6	-10.3	-23.1	-39.1

Top Picks

BUY:
- Sunac China (1918 HK) - Upside: 37.8%
- ICBC (1398 HK) - Upside: 15.4%
- Bank Mandiri (BMRI J) - Upside: 16.6%
- Gamuda (GAM MK) - Upside: 10.4%
- DBS (DBS SP) - Upside: 14.5%
- Pacific Radiance (PACRA SP) - Upside: 109.3%
- Bangkok Bank (BBL TB) - Upside: 41.5%
- Advanced Info (ADVANC) - Upside: 10.7%
SELL:
- UMWH Holdings (UMWH MK) - Upside: -7.4%

Company Updates

Bank BJB (BJBR IJ)

Valuation: Current share price Rp775, target price Rp880 (+13.5% upside).
Catalysts:
- New management team.
- Continuous improvement in asset quality.
- Attractive dividend yield (6.9% at current price).
Key Financials:
- Net interest income: RM1,042m (2015F)
- Net profit: RM1,042m (2015F)
- EPS: Rp107.4
- P/B: 1.1x
- Payout ratio: 50.0%
Company Description: A regional bank owned by provincial and municipal governments of West Java and Banten.

Malaysia

Astro Malaysia (ASTRO MK)

Results: 3QFY15 results slightly below expectations due to higher-than-expected administrative expenses.
EBITDA Growth: 9MFY15 EBITDA grew by 11%.
ARPU and Subscribers: ARPU and total subscribers improved.
Recommendation: Maintain BUY with a target price of RM3.65 (+9.6% upside).
Key Financials:
- Revenue: RM1,280m (3QFY15)
- EBITDA: RM428m (3QFY15)
- Net profit (rep./act.): RM113m (3QFY15)
- EPS: 2.5 sen
- PE: 35.2x
- P/B: 25.2x
- EV/EBITDA: 11.1x
- Dividend Yield: 2.4%
Company Description: A pay-TV operator.

Key Assumptions

Country	2013 % yoy	2014 % yoy	2015F % yoy
US	1.9	2.7	3.2
Euro Zone	-0.4	0.9	1.4
Japan	1.5	1.5	2.0
Singapore	3.9	3.2	3.3
Malaysia	4.7	5.9	5.2
Thailand	2.9	1.5	3.9
Indonesia	5.8	5.2	5.8
Hong Kong	2.9	3.5	3.7
China	7.7	7.2	7.0

Commodity	2013 (US$/bbl)	2014F (US$/bbl)	2015F (US$/bbl)
Brent	110	100	85
CPO	736	725	765
BDI	1,219	1,200	1,300

Strategic Insights

The A-H price convergence is expected to be resolved by year-end due to logistical complexities related to the Shanghai-Hong Kong Connect.
Investors should avoid chasing the financial and property sectors at this time but consider increasing exposure to the consumer sector.
The document highlights the importance of monitoring the impact of monetary easing on different sectors and the potential for reallocation to benefit the Chinese market.

Analysts

Tham Mun Hon (China): +852 22366799 | munhon.tham@uobkayhian.com.hk
Sonny John (Indonesia): +6221 2993 3917 | sonnyjohn@uobkayhian.com
Malaysia Research Team: +603 2147 1988 | research@uobkayhian.com

Conclusion

The report outlines a cautiously optimistic outlook for several Asian markets, particularly China, with a focus on the potential benefits of monetary easing and sector rotation. It provides detailed financial analysis for key companies such as Bank BJB and Astro Malaysia, with a BUY recommendation for both. The document also highlights the importance of valuations, dividends, and macroeconomic assumptions in shaping investment decisions.

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