布鲁盖尔-Racing-against-COVID_19页_382kb

Summary of "Racing against COVID-19: a vaccines strategy for Europe"

Core Content

This document outlines a comprehensive strategy for accelerating the development and availability of a COVID-19 vaccine in Europe, emphasizing the need for public funding, coordinated efforts, and balanced incentives for both public and private stakeholders. It provides an analysis of the challenges in vaccine development, the current state of vaccine projects, and the financial and regulatory considerations required to ensure a successful and equitable outcome.

Main Points

1. The Importance of Vaccines in Combating the Pandemic

• Vaccines are essential to achieve herd immunity and reopen economies.
• Natural immunity is difficult and costly to engineer.
• A successful vaccine is critical to prevent the pandemic from restarting.

2. The Challenges of Vaccine Development

• High failure rates and long development timelines are common in drug development.
• Vaccines generally have higher success rates than other drugs, especially for new diseases.
• Clinical trials are the most expensive and risky phase, with no guaranteed success.
• Global-scale production and fair pricing are major challenges for future vaccines.

3. The Current State of the Vaccine Pipeline

• As of March 2020, the WHO had identified over 40 vaccine projects, and CEPI had identified 78.
• Only a few projects have started clinical trials (Moderna, Inovio, CanSino Biologics).
• Europe has exploratory and preclinical projects, but no clinical trials at the time of writing.
• Small biotech firms are the main developers, but they lack resources for later stages.

4. Funding and Investment in Vaccine Development

• Private companies tend to underinvest in vaccines due to high risks and uncertain returns.
• Public funding is crucial to reduce risks and support development.
• CEPI has raised $29.2 million for vaccine R&D, with the EU contributing through Horizon 2020.
• IMI and the European Investment Bank have also provided funding.
• EU funding for vaccine development is limited, especially for later stages.

5. The Need for a Staged Support Scheme

• To ensure a high probability of success (99%), at least nine projects need to enter clinical trials.
• More projects are needed to increase chances of multiple vaccines.
• A staged funding scheme is proposed to support vaccine development through all phases.
• The goal is to identify at least three suitable vaccines with a high probability of success.

6. Public-Private Partnerships and Global Collaboration

• Public-private partnerships are vital for funding and development.
• CEPI is a key global initiative, and the EU is a partner in its efforts.
• Compulsory licensing and price controls may be necessary to ensure fair access, but must be balanced with incentives for private firms.
• Global coordination is essential to avoid underinvestment by individual countries.

Key Information

• Success rates for vaccines vary between 20% and 40%, depending on the disease.
• Clinical trials are the most expensive and risky phase, with no human trials yet for most projects.
• Public funding is insufficient to support enough projects through the entire development pipeline.
• Estimated costs for clinical development and regulatory approval range from €500 million to €3 billion, depending on the number of projects.
• Private companies are unlikely to invest without clear returns and government support.
• Multiple vaccines are needed to address different population subtypes, reduce risks, and prevent monopolies.

Recommendations

• The EU should implement a public funding scheme to support vaccine development.
• This scheme should include open continuous calls for funding, conditional grants, and support for later stages.
• The goal is to ensure at least three vaccines are available with high probability of success.
• Global collaboration and fair pricing mechanisms are essential to ensure equitable access.
• Public funding is a bargain compared to the health, social, and economic costs of the pandemic.

Conclusion

The document argues that public funding is necessary to overcome the risks and costs of vaccine development, especially for a global pandemic like COVID-19. It proposes a staged support scheme and a moon shot programme for future pandemics, highlighting the importance of coordination, investment, and fair access to ensure a successful and equitable vaccine rollout.