2015年-世界发展银行全球_Recent_Economic_Developments_and_Prospects_4页_878kb

MENA Knowledge and Learning: Recent Economic Developments and Prospects

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of recent economic developments and prospects in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, focusing on the impact of low oil prices, regional conflicts, and policy reforms on economic growth and stability. It outlines both positive and negative trends across oil-exporting and oil-importing countries, with an emphasis on the challenges faced by the region in maintaining sustainable growth.

Global and Regional Economic Trends

• Global Outlook:

  • The global economy is expected to grow by 3 to 3.5% in 2015, up from 2.6% in 2014, surpassing the 3.1% average during 2000-08.
  • The U.S. and U.K. are expected to see continued recovery, while the Euro area will grow more slowly.
  • Developing economies are projected to grow at 4.8% in 2015 and 5.3% in 2016.
  • Oil price declines are a key factor in the global recovery, with Brent crude prices expected to rise slowly to $61 in 2015 and $67 in 2016.

• MENA Regional Outlook:

  • The region's economic growth is expected to remain between 3.1% and 3.3% in 2015.
  • If security improves in Libya and oil exports increase, the regional growth average could rise to 4% to 5% in 2016.
  • Prolonged conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Libya, and Yemen, along with slow reforms, are contributing to weak growth.
  • Unemployment is at 12%, and poverty is rising due to ongoing instability and fiscal pressures.

Oil Exporters in MENA

• Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Oil Exporters:

  • Growth is expected to range between 3.2% and 3.8% in 2015, down from the previous year.
  • Saudi Arabia's growth is projected at 4.6%, down from earlier years due to declining oil revenues.
  • The World Bank estimates that Gulf countries could lose $215 billion in oil revenues in 2015, equivalent to 14% of their combined GDP.
  • Saudi Arabia's fiscal surplus is disappearing, leading to double-digit deficits in 2015 and 2016.
  • Other GCC states like UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar are using foreign assets to buffer fiscal impacts, while Bahrain and Oman have less cushion.

• Developing Oil Exporters:

  • Iran: Economic growth is contingent on the lifting of sanctions and oil price stability. Growth is expected to reach 5% in 2016 if sanctions are lifted, but could slow to 0.6% in 2015 otherwise.
  • Algeria: Growth is expected to fall to 2.6% in 2015, with a doubling of the fiscal deficit and a widening current account deficit.
  • Iraq: Economic growth is expected to turn negative in 2015 due to ISIS insurgency, military spending, and low oil prices. The fiscal deficit is estimated to reach 10.6% of GDP.
  • Libya: The economy is in recession, with a contraction of 24% in 2014 and 14% in 2013. The budget deficit is over 40% of GDP in 2014 and 2015.
  • Yemen: Growth dropped to 0% in 2014 due to conflict, and is expected to contract by 2.8% in 2015. The budget deficit rose to 8.7% of GDP.
  • Syria: The civil war has caused economic contraction, with some forecasters suggesting a possible 2% growth in 2015 due to businesses relocating to stable coastal areas.

Oil Importers in MENA

• Developing MENA Countries:

  • Growth is expected to remain at 2% in 2015, slightly higher than the previous year due to better-than-expected performance in oil importers.
  • Fiscal deficits are expected to improve in oil importers due to low oil prices.

• Egypt:

  • Low oil prices have helped contain inflation and reduce the fiscal deficit.
  • The country is expected to grow at 3.1% in 2015 and 4% in 2016.
  • Egypt raised $36.5 billion at the Economic Development Conference, with GCC countries pledging $12.5 billion.

• Tunisia:

  • Economic recovery is slow due to weak external demand and domestic instability.
  • Growth is expected to increase from 0.5% in 2015 to 3.4% in 2016.
  • The fiscal deficit is projected to decrease from 6.8% in 2013 to 4.2% in 2016.

• Jordan and Lebanon:

  • Both are recovering slowly but steadily, despite regional conflicts.
  • Jordan's growth is expected to exceed 3% in 2015, while Lebanon's growth remains at around 2.5% in 2015 and 2016.
  • Political stability and fiscal consolidation could lead to a growth rebound in Lebanon.

• Palestinian Territories:

  • The economy has been severely impacted by the 2014 Gaza war and ongoing conflict.
  • Growth is expected to be less than 1% in 2015, with rising unemployment and poverty.
  • Youth unemployment in Gaza reached 60% in 2014, and the poverty rate increased from 28% to 39%.

Key Challenges and Risks

• Fiscal Pressures:

  • Oil exporters are facing significant fiscal deficits, with some countries (e.g., Saudi Arabia) experiencing deficits for the first time in a decade.
  • The fiscal situation in the Gulf is deteriorating, with stock markets and foreign reserves declining.

• Unemployment and Poverty:

  • Unemployment is rising across the region, with youth unemployment being particularly severe in Gaza.
  • Poverty is increasing, especially in conflict-affected areas.

• Policy Reforms:

  • Policy reforms in oil-importing countries like Egypt and Morocco are helping to improve economic stability and reduce deficits.
  • However, the effectiveness of these reforms is limited by ongoing regional instability and the need for sustained international support.

• Long-Term Outlook:

  • The economic outlook for MENA is currently tepid, but could improve if regional conflicts subside and necessary reforms are implemented.
  • The impact of low oil prices is expected to persist, but the pace of price increases is slow and unlikely to reach $100 in the near future.

Conclusion

The MENA region is navigating a complex economic landscape shaped by low oil prices, regional conflicts, and slow policy reforms. While oil importers are benefiting from cheaper energy, oil exporters are struggling with declining revenues and rising fiscal deficits. The long-term growth potential of the region depends on resolving conflicts, implementing structural reforms, and managing the economic impact of oil price volatility.