2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Malawi_Technical_Assistance_Report_57页_4mb

Summary of the Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) in Malawi

Core Content

This report is a Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) of Malawi conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) in 2018. It evaluates the management and performance of public investment in the country, focusing on institutional strength, effectiveness, and the implementation of reforms.

Main Points

Public Investment Overview

• Public Investment Trends:

  • From 1990 to 2015, public investment averaged about 5.5% of GDP.
  • In recent years, over 85% of public investment has been externally financed.
  • Local authority investment accounts for 1.0–1.5% of domestically-financed public investment.

• Capital Stock:

  • The nominal public capital stock was 104% of GDP in 2015, indicating a relatively large stock.
  • However, per capita capital stock remains low compared to other countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

• Sectoral Focus:

  • The government prioritizes infrastructure development (roads, telecommunications, water, and irrigation) and social spending (education, healthcare, and gender).
  • These priorities are reflected in the Malawi Growth and Development Strategy (MGDS III) for 2017–2022, which aims to increase public investment by US$ 1.2 billion, or 19% of GDP.

• Fiscal Risks:

  • The increasing focus on public investment raises concerns about fiscal risks, especially from public-private partnerships (PPPs) and other contracts with private and bilateral donors.
  • These risks could affect debt management and fiscal stabilization.

Institutional Assessment

• Institutional Strength:

  • Malawi's PIM institutions are comparable to other low-income developing countries (LIDCs) in SSA but underperform compared to better-performing emerging markets.
  • There are weaknesses in the legal framework, regulatory oversight, and capacity building.

• Effectiveness:

  • Malawi's performance in implementing and enforcing laws and regulations is relatively poor.
  • Weaknesses include:
    • Inadequate cost-benefit analysis for large projects.
    • Unreliable cost estimates for projects.
    • Weak procurement processes with limited transparency.
    • Inefficient project management and monitoring.
    • Weak asset management and underdeveloped asset registers.

Key Findings

• Infrastructure Quality:

  • Perceived infrastructure quality is low.
  • Access and service delivery in infrastructure sectors like roads, energy, and education are also underperforming.
  • However, health and water access indicators are relatively strong.

• Funding and Execution:

  • Cash flow planning is weak, leading to unreliable funding and large arrears.
  • Budget execution is inefficient, with in-year cuts and delayed funding.
  • Procurement processes are not transparent or effective.

• PPPs and SOEs:

  • PPPs are limited in number, but several large projects are in the pipeline.
  • State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) have limited oversight, and regulatory independence is not fully achieved.

Key Recommendations

The report provides a series of recommendations to improve PIM practices in Malawi, categorized into three phases: Planning, Allocation, and Implementation.

A. Planning Sustainable Levels of Investment

1. Develop standard guidelines for project appraisal to support the Public Sector Investment Program (PSIP) process.
2. Establish an Infrastructure Project Development Fund (IPDF) or comparable financing mechanism for MDAs and the PPP Commission.
3. Update the Public Finance Management Act (PFMA) to include provisions on project appraisal, selection, and cost-benefit analysis for major projects.
4. Strengthen the Ministry of Finance, Economic Planning, and Development (MoFEPD) role in financial oversight of SOEs and their investment activities.

B. Allocating Investment

5. Increase MDA authority in the selection of priority projects to be included in the budget.
6. Expand budget documentation to capture all public investment projects, including off-budget expenditures and maintenance costs.
7. Include information on total project costs and multi-year commitments in the budget.
8. Revise processes for estimating and disclosing maintenance requirements and ensure they are not reallocated during budget execution.

C. Implementing Investment

9. Prepare detailed implementation plans to improve the transparency of the procurement process.
10. Ensure consistent and timely funding for capital projects through improved cash flow forecasting and quarterly cash releases.
11. Enhance the usefulness of the PSIP database by conducting independent audits, ex-post reviews, and ensuring regular reporting from MDAs.
12. Improve reporting on non-financial assets by requiring MDAs to maintain and update registers of non-financial assets and include them in annual financial statements.

Conclusion

The PIMA report identifies both strengths and weaknesses in Malawi's public investment management. While the government has made progress in national planning, budget coordination, and PSIP implementation, there are significant gaps in procurement, project appraisal, and asset management. The report emphasizes the need for legal reforms, capacity building, and institutional improvements to enhance the effectiveness and sustainability of public investment in Malawi. Implementing the recommended reforms could lead to substantial improvements in PIMA ratings by 2022, potentially bringing Malawi in line with emerging markets in Africa and elsewhere.