WARC-全球广告趋势—2020-2021年行业状况（英文）-2020.12-31页_2mb

报告摘要

Global Ad Trends Summary

Core Content

The Global Ad Trends report provides an analysis of the advertising industry's state in 2020 and 2021, focusing on ad investment, media consumption, and cost inflation. It outlines the global advertising market's contraction due to the impact of the pandemic, with a detailed breakdown of key markets, product categories, and media formats.

Main Takeaways

Global Ad Market Decline: The global advertising market is expected to contract by 10.2% in 2020, losing $63.4bn. This is a 2.1pp downgrade from the May forecast. Excluding US election campaigning, the contraction is 11.0%, or $68.3bn, to $552.3bn.
Recovery Outlook: Ad investment is forecast to rise by 6.7% in 2021, but only 59% of 2020's losses will be recouped. To surpass the 2019 peak, a 4.5% growth in 2022 is required.
Worse than Previous Recession: The real decline in the ad market is 11.4%, which is nearly double the 6.1% decline during the 2009 Great Recession.
Media Performance: Online video is the only format showing improved prospects, with 12.8% growth in 2021, following a 7.9% rise in 2020. Traditional media, however, are expected to see a net reduction in investment.
Consumer Impact: A doubling in unemployment and depressed global trade are expected to limit consumer spending, affecting ad investment across major economies.
Sector Performance: Only the government & non-profit sector saw an increase in ad investment in 2020. The automotive sector lost $11.0bn, the retail sector lost $10.5bn, and the travel & tourism sector cut ad spend by 33.8%.
Market Growth in 2021: While all sectors are expected to increase ad investment in 2021, only three will surpass their 2019 levels: telecoms & utilities, media & publishing, and business & industrial.
Digital Dominance: Digital channels are set to dominate media budgets in 2021. The majority of ad money will be transacted by machines, with brand safety and ad fraud being the top concerns for 15% and 10% of marketers, respectively.
Regional Analysis:
- North America: Ad investment is forecast to grow by 3.8% in 2021.
- Europe: Expected to grow by 10.2% in 2021.
- Asia Pacific: Projected to grow by 8.5% in 2021.
- Latin America: Expected to grow by 0.1% in 2021.
- Middle East & Africa: Growth projections are 7.0% and 2.1% for 2021, respectively.

Key Markets

Market	2019 % Change	2020 % Change	2020 vs 2019 Difference	2021 % Change
North America	4.6%	-3.7%	-0.6pp	3.8%
US	4.7%	-3.5%	-0.6pp	3.8%
Canada	3.7%	-6.5%	-1.3pp	4.5%
Europe	1.3%	-12.2%	-2.3pp	10.2%
UK	5.2%	-16.4%	+2.8pp	14.7%
France	0.7%	-18.7%	+2.0pp	7.1%
Germany	-1.3%	-6.1%	-4.0pp	9.0%
Italy	-2.8%	-21.7%	+1.6pp	11.3%
Russia	1.8%	-12.3%	+2.1pp	6.8%
Asia Pacific	0.1%	-7.7%	-2.0pp	8.5%
China	-1.0%	-8.6%	+3.9pp	7.7%
Australia	3.3%	-8.2%	-12.5pp	13.2%
Japan	-1.2%	-6.4%	-6.2pp	10.2%
India	8.3%	0.7%	-28.4pp	14.2%
Latin America	-1.1%	-20.7%	-11.5pp	0.1%
Brazil	0.0%	-22.5%	-20.7pp	-2.2%
Middle East	-3.7%	-15.1%	-5.1pp	7.0%
Saudi Arabia	-12.6%	-15.2%	-2.8pp	8.0%
Africa	-1.5%	-19.5%	-3.8pp	2.1%
South Africa	-7.6%	-19.6%	-7.2pp	-0.7%

Media Investment Trends

Online Video: The only media format showing upgraded prospects, with 12.8% growth in 2021.
Traditional Media: Expected to see a net decrease in investment, with only 19% of practitioners planning to increase TV spend.
Ad Budgets: The majority of ad money will be transacted by machines in 2021.
Marketers' Concerns: 15% of marketers list brand safety as a major concern, while 10% list ad fraud.

Product Category Analysis

Automotive: Lost $11.0bn in 2020, with a 21.2% drop in spend.
Retail: Lost $10.5bn, with a 16.2% drop in spend.
Travel & Tourism: Cut ad spend by 33.8%, or $16.4bn.
Only Three Categories to Top 2019 Levels: Telecoms & utilities, media & publishing, and business & industrial.

Economic Impact

Global Economic Output: Set to fall by 4.4% in 2020, the worst performance in a century.
Unemployment Rate: Expected to double in OECD markets, affecting consumer spending and ad investment.
Developing Markets: Hit hardest by the downturn, with Australia seeing a -18.4% drop in ad investment in 2020, but projected to grow by 11.7% in 2021.

Methodology

Data Sources: WARC aggregates data from over 100 reputable sources.
Harmonisation: Data are harmonised to ensure accurate cross-market comparisons.
Verification: WARC meticulously verifies all data before publication.
Evaluation: Uses 40 years of industry monitoring to evaluate trends.

Notes

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP): Used to adjust for exchange rate fluctuations.
Constant Prices: Calculated using a base period of 2015.
CAGR: Compound annual growth rates are used to measure growth over time.
Data Accuracy: All data are correct as of November 16, 2020.
Adspend Database: Data are net of discounts, include agency commission, and exclude production costs.

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