马来西亚2024经济展望-英-207页_6mb

Economic Outlook 2024 Summary

Core Content

The Economic Outlook 2024 is an annual publication by the Ministry of Finance Malaysia, released on the same day as the Annual Budget. The 2024 edition was released on 13 October 2023. It provides a comprehensive analysis of the current economic situation, future prospects, and key policies aimed at fostering sustainable and inclusive growth. The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand in driving economic growth and highlights the role of the Ekonomi MADANI framework, which focuses on enhancing the well-being of the Malaysian people.

Main Points

• Global Economic Challenges: The global economy faces challenges due to the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and monetary policy tightening to combat inflation. These factors contribute to the risk of a worldwide economic slowdown.

• Malaysia's Resilience: Malaysia's economy is resilient due to its diversified structure, strong fundamentals, and solid financial system. These factors, along with firm policies and pragmatic initiatives, support steady growth.

• Economic Growth Forecast:

  • Malaysia recorded a growth of 4.2% in the first half of 2023.
  • The economy is expected to expand at approximately 4% in 2023 and 4-5% in 2024.
  • The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in constant 2015 prices is projected to grow to RM 1.645 billion in 2024.

• Key Sectors:

  • Agriculture: Expected to grow by 1.2% in 2024.
  • Manufacturing: Projected to increase by 4.2%.
  • Construction: Anticipated to grow by 6.8%.
  • Services: Expected to grow by 5.6%.

• Domestic Demand Drivers:

  • Public and private consumption are expected to grow by 3.8% and 8.3%, respectively.
  • Gross fixed capital formation is forecasted to increase by 10.5% in 2024.

• Trade Dynamics:

  • Gross exports are projected to reach RM 1.501 billion in 2024, with manufactured goods expected to grow by 5.5%.
  • Gross imports are forecasted to be RM 1.264 billion, with consumption goods growing by 4.1%.
  • The trade balance is expected to be RM 237.3 billion in 2024.

• Inflation and Prices:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to range between 2.1% and 3.6% in 2024.
  • Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to range between 0.1% and 2.1%.

• Labour Market:

  • The labour force is projected to grow to 16.669 million by 2024.
  • Unemployment is expected to remain around 3.4%.

• Financial and Capital Market Developments:

  • Money supply (M1, M2, M3) is expected to grow by 9.3%, 5.4%, and 5.5%, respectively.
  • Interest rates are expected to rise, with the base lending rate (BLR) at 6.68% in 2023.
  • Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) are expected to show indicative yields of 3.24% for 1-year and 3.60% for 5-year in 2023.

• Government Finance:

  • Federal Government Revenue is projected to increase to RM 307.6 billion in 2024.
  • Operating expenditure is expected to rise to RM 303.8 billion.
  • The current balance is expected to improve to RM 3.8 billion.
  • Development expenditure (net) is forecasted to be RM 89.2 billion in 2024.

• Key Policies and Initiatives:

  • The National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR).
  • The New Industrial Master Plan 2030 (NIMP 2030).
  • The Mid-Term Review of the Twelfth Malaysia Plan.
  • Ekonomi MADANI framework aims to achieve seven targets over the next ten years.

Key Objectives

• Sustainable and Inclusive Growth: The government aims to ensure that the economic benefits are distributed equitably among all segments of society.
• Enhancing Wellbeing: Focus on healthcare, education, social protection, and public amenities.
• Fiscal Sustainability: The government is committed to mobilising revenue and optimising expenditure to reduce leakages and wastages.
• Economic Transformation: Emphasis on digitalisation, agile public services, and investment-driven growth.

Conclusion

The 2024 Economic Outlook highlights Malaysia's resilience and potential for growth amidst global challenges. The government's focus on domestic demand, sustainable development, and fiscal responsibility positions Malaysia for a promising year. The Ekonomi MADANI framework, along with key policies and initiatives, is expected to drive the economy forward and ensure equitable benefits for all Malaysians.