20260511-招银国际-1Q26_review_resilient_business_execution_despite_persistent_market_headwinds_6页_1mb

Coinbase (COIN US) 1Q26 Review Summary

Core Content

Coinbase reported its 1Q26 financial results, showing a decline in total revenue and adjusted EBITDA compared to previous periods. Despite the challenging market conditions, the company managed to gain market share in crypto trading and saw traction in new initiatives such as derivatives and prediction markets.

Financial Performance

• Total Revenue: Declined by 31% YoY and 21% QoQ to US$1.41bn, in line with Bloomberg consensus.
• Adjusted EBITDA: Fell by 67% YoY and 46% QoQ to US$303mn, below the consensus estimate of US$408mn.
• Transaction Revenue: Dropped by 40% YoY and 23% QoQ to US$756mn, amid a 28% QoQ decline in crypto trading volumes.
• Subscription and Services Revenue: Decreased by 14% YoY and 16% QoQ to US$584mn.
• Stablecoin Revenue: Rose by 11% YoY to US$305mn, driven by the growth in USDC market cap.

Main Points

• Market Share Growth: Coinbase increased its crypto trading volume market share to 8.6% in 1Q26, up from 6.0% in 1Q25 and 8.0% in 4Q25.
• New Initiatives: Derivatives trading volume grew by 169% YoY to US$4.2bn, with annualized revenue from retail derivatives surpassing US$200mn. Prediction Markets reached annualized revenue over US$100mn in March, just two months after launch.
• Non-Crypto Growth: Silver and gold contracts saw more than 4 times growth QoQ.
• Workforce Reduction: The company announced a 14% workforce reduction in May to manage sector headwinds and accelerate the AI transition, leading to a US$500mn cost reduction in FY26.
• Regulatory Outlook: The CLARITY Act is expected to be signed by the end of the summer, which could improve market sentiment and Coinbase's valuation.

Key Financial Forecasts

Forecast Revisions

• Revenue Forecasts: Revised downward by 15-17% for FY26-28E due to the weak crypto market environment.
• SOTP Target Price: Revised to US$235.0 (previously US$270.0), with a 16.8% downside from current price of US$201.16.

Valuation Breakdown

• Transaction Business: Valued at US$111.0 per share (47% of total) based on 23x FY26E EV/EBITDA.
• Stablecoin Business: Valued at US$94.2 per share (40%) based on 47x FY26E EV/EBITDA (on par with Circle).
• Custodial, Blockchain Rewards & Other Business: Valued at US$10.0 per share (4%) based on 9x FY26E EV/EBITDA (on par with asset management companies).
• Net Cash: Valued at US$19.7 per share (8% of total valuation).

Analyst Ratings

• Overall Rating: Maintain BUY.
• Target Price: US$235.00.
• CMBIGM Ratings:
  • BUY: Potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
  • OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months.

Shareholding and Performance

• Shareholding Structure:

  • Brian Armstrong: 12.9%
  • The Vanguard Group: 6.2%

• Share Performance:

  • 1-Month: 14.9% absolute, -0.9% relative.
  • 3-Month: 21.8% absolute, 6.9% relative.
  • 6-Month: -34.9% absolute, -43.0% relative.

Valuation Comparison

Analyst Certification

The research analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect their personal views and that there are no conflicts of interest affecting the report's objectivity.

Important Disclosures

• The report is not tailored for individual investors and is for informational purposes only.
• Past performance does not guarantee future results.
• CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the U.S., Singapore, or U.K., and the report is not an offer to buy or sell securities.
• The report is subject to change and may not be reproduced without prior written consent.