> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Coinbase (COIN US) 2Q26 Summary ## Core Financial Performance - **Net Revenue**: $1.15bn in 2Q26, a 14% QoQ decline, slightly below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of $1.22bn. - **Adjusted EBITDA**: $208mn in 2Q26, a 31% QoQ drop, compared to the consensus of $327mn. - **Cost Reduction**: Achieved approximately $600mn in cost savings compared to the 2025 annualized exit rate, following a 14% headcount reduction in May. - **Adjusted Expenses Guidance**: Lowered FY26 adj. expenses guidance to $4.20–$4.45bn from the previous $4.25–$4.60bn. ## Revenue Streams and Growth Drivers - **Transaction Revenue**: $599mn in 2Q26, down 21% QoQ, representing 52% of net revenue. - Market share increased by 3.2/1.2 ppts YoY/QoQ to 10.3%. - TTM crypto derivatives trading volume remained flat despite a 12% decline in overall market volume. - **Subscription and Services Revenue**: $555mn in 2Q26, down 15% QoQ, accounting for 48% of net revenue. - **Stablecoin Revenue**: $292mn in 2Q26, down 4% QoQ, mainly due to declining interest rates. - USDC and Coinbase's partner stablecoins accounted for 79% of total market stablecoin transaction volume YTD. - **Blockchain Rewards Revenue**: $83mn in 2Q26, down 17% QoQ, attributed to crypto asset price and reward rate declines. - **3Q26 Guidance**: Transaction revenue expected to be around $130mn QTD (1 Jul–26 Jul). ## Strategic Adjustments and Efficiency Improvements - **Operating Efficiency**: Enhanced efficiency through AI, with pull requests per engineer up 2.2x YoY and test coverage up 2.5x YoY. - **Cost Optimization**: Continued cost optimization to mitigate market headwinds. - **Management Commitment**: Committed to generating positive adjusted EBITDA in all market conditions. ## Earnings and Valuation Overview | Metric | FY24A (US$ mn) | FY25A (US$ mn) | FY26E (US$ mn) | FY27E (US$ mn) | FY28E (US$ mn) | |--------------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------| | Revenue | 6,564 | 7,181 | 5,029 | 5,823 | 6,518 | | Net Profit | 2,579.1 | 1,260.3 | (919.5) | 255.2 | 441.6 | | EPS (Reported) | 10.43 | 4.85 | (3.48) | 0.96 | 1.67 | | Consensus EPS | 10.43 | 4.85 | (1.47) | 3.70 | 5.34 | | P/S (x) | 5.9 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 5.9 | ## Valuation and Target Price - **Target Price**: $205.00 (down from $235.00). - **SOTP Valuation**: Based on the following components: - **Transaction Business**: $130.1 per share (63% of total valuation), using 35x FY26E EV/EBITDA. - **Stablecoin Business**: $43.4 per share (21% of total valuation), using 27x FY26E EV/EBITDA (on par with Circle). - **Custodial, Blockchain Rewards, and Other Business**: $13.7 per share (7% of total valuation), using 11x FY26E EV/EBITDA (on par with asset management companies). - **Net Cash**: $17.8 per share (9% of total valuation). ## Market Position and Outlook - **Market Share**: Continued to gain market share, up 3.2/1.2 ppts YoY/QoQ to 10.3%. - **Crypto Market Sentiment**: Despite continued weakness, Coinbase maintained healthy business trends. - **Revenue Forecasts**: Lowered FY26–28E total revenue forecasts by 15–17% due to weak crypto market sentiment. - **Investment Recommendation**: Maintain **BUY** rating. ## Share Performance and Structure - **Shareholding Structure**: - Brian Armstrong: 12.9% - The Vanguard Group: 6.2% - **Share Performance**: - 1-month: 0.0% - 3-month: -22.1% - 6-month: -24.9% ## Stock Data - **Market Cap**: $38,576.5mn - **Avg 3 mths t/o**: $738.8mn - **52w High/Low**: $387.27 / $141.09 - **Total Issued Shares**: 263.8mn ## Analyst Certification and Ratings - **Analyst Certification**: Confirms that views reflect personal opinions and are not influenced by compensation. - **CMBIGM Ratings**: - **BUY**: Potential return of over 15% over next 12 months. - **HOLD**: Potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months. - **SELL**: Potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months. - **OUTPERFORM**: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark. - **MARKET-PERFORM**: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark. - **UNDERPERFORM**: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark. ## Disclaimer and Risk Information - **Risks**: Inherent in securities trading, and past performance does not guarantee future results. - **No Investment Advice**: CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice. - **Liability Disclaimer**: CMBIGM and its affiliates are not liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the report. - **Conflicts of Interest**: CMBIGM may have positions or engage in transactions in securities of companies mentioned, which may affect the report's objectivity. ## Legal and Distribution Notes - **United Kingdom**: Report is for persons within Article 19(5) or Article 49(2) of the Financial Promotion Order 2005. - **United States**: Report is for "major US institutional investors" only; not for general distribution. - **Singapore**: Report is distributed by CMBISG, an Exempt Financial Adviser, and is subject to Singaporean regulations. ## Summary of Key Metrics | Metric | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |----------------------|---------|---------|---------| | Revenue (US$ bn) | 5.0 | 5.8 | 6.5 | | Gross Profit (US$ bn) | 4.3 | 4.9 | 5.5 | | Net Profit (US$ bn) | (0.9) | 0.3 | 0.5 | | Operating Profit (US$ bn) | (0.3) | 0.3 | 0.5 | | Diluted EPS (US$) | (3.5) | 1.0 | 1.7 | | P/S (x) | 7.7 | 6.6 | 5.9 | | P/E (diluted) | ns | 151.6 | 87.2 | | P/B | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.9 | ## Key Takeaways - Coinbase continues to maintain a strong market position despite challenging crypto market conditions. - The company is actively diversifying revenue streams and optimizing costs to sustain growth. - While revenue and adjusted EBITDA declined in 2Q26, the company's strategic initiatives are expected to support long-term value creation. - The target price has been revised downward to $205.00, reflecting a more conservative outlook. - The **BUY** rating is maintained due to the company's resilience and growth potential in the crypto sector.