2025-06-10-Jefferies-建筑商第一资源公司（BLDR）_4月批发木材销售额同比增长4.5_8页_218kb

BLDRs Analysis Summary

Key Ratings & Data

• Equity Research by Jefferies:
  • Rating: Buy
  • Price Target: $137
  • YoY % Change: +21%
  • Market Cap: $13.1B

April 2024 Performance

• April unadjusted lumber & construction sales +4.5% YoY, beating expectations.
• Seasonally adjusted sales +0.2% MoM and +350% YoY reported.
• Lumber prices:
  • Unadjusted sales price +19% YoY by mid-May.
  • OSB prices down 36% YoY (April), reflecting surplus supply.

Forward Outlook

• Risks:
  • 7% mortgage rates slowing new housing starts due to higher borrowing costs.
  • Elevated inventory (8-9 months) requiring reduced starts post-spring.
  • Uncertainty in 2H25 with low visibility.
• Price Caution: Composite lumber prices falling after tariff speculation, with W. SPF at $418 vs. peaks near $500.

Market Correlation

• BLDR sales closely tied to wood & insulation industry data (r=0.95–0.97).
• May/June expected to be critical months for 2Q performance.

Valuation & Risks

• Price target driven by 10.8x 2025E EBITDA.
• Key Risk: Sustained low lumber prices (below $400) or reduced residential construction.

Disclaimer

• Analysts certify independence from compensation tied to ratings.
• Investment risks noted, including market volatility and currency fluctuations.