2025-06-10-Jefferies-零售更新_大众美容产品销售额同比增长3.5_；平均售价增长2.9_销量增长0.6_13页_691kb

报告摘要

Mass Beauty Sales Growth: YTD (2025) accumulated 1.1% Y/Y but with declining sequential growth, highest in T4Wk at +3.5% Y/Y, compared to +2.0% in the prior week. Makeup category shows decelerating sales, with negative growth in units but positive dollars, highlighting price-driven expansion. Fragrance is the standout performer with a strong Y/Y increase of 21.8%.

YTD Makeup & Nail: Makeup sales often lag units, indicating deflationary pressures. Nail growth was negative in Q1 (-8.0% in T12Wk YoY). High-end products like eyeliner saw substantial Y/Y declines of around 5%.

Leading Brands: L’Oreal maintains strong top market share and high gross margins but faces an enviable growth opportunity in makeup with mass brands like Maybelline and NYX. e.l.f. is a key driver of category growth, surpassing other brands in volume and margin expansion in mass beauty. Coty's e.l.f segment is growing significantly while its beauty business overall remains negative and may underperform due to high leverage.

Coty: The valuation suffers due to elevated recovery risk; challenges include FX and competition.
L'Oreal (FP): Holds at €378 short-term, but a "Hold" rating may signal guarded optimism. Risks include the potential soft landing scenario in the US and China's performance drivers.
e.l.f. (ELF): Repositioned to grow and expand margins, attracting affordable consumers; projections assume continued outperformance in its specific segments. However, it remains vulnerable to competition and cyclicality.

The market relies on price pressures to boost top-line growth. Valuation targets often seem to be in conservative territory. High competition in mass and pro beauty poses significant risks especially to established players unless they innovate.

Mass beauty sales have stabilized in recent quarters, with the market-facing brands of Coty (ELF in particular) outperforming multi-category segments like hair.
High price volatility in February’s market data suggests intense promotional competition or inventory shifts. Hair care underperformed, with stagnation or falling volume alongside revenue declines.

Coty: Currently rated BUY at $8.00 (Apr 22, 2025), with a history of rating changes.
L'Oreal FP: HOLD at €369.
e.l.f.: BUY at $75.00 (Apr 22, 2025).

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