20170706-汤森路透-Monthly_Oil_MarketReview_18页_5mb_5mb

Thomson Reuters Monthly Oil Market Review - June 2017 Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the global oil market in June 2017, focusing on oil price movements, supply and demand fundamentals, and regional developments. It highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions, seasonal factors, and weather disruptions on oil markets.

Key Highlights

• Crude Oil Imports in Asia decreased by 3.29% month-over-month (m-o-m), primarily due to seasonal maintenance in Northeast Asia, but were partially offset by strong demand from China and India.
• Northwest Europe Crude Imports fell by 200,000 bpd to 5.14 million bpd in June. Iran had the largest monthly drop, with volumes falling by 2.92 million bbl.
• Mediterranean Crude Imports increased to 5.39 million bpd, the highest level of the year. Iran's imports surged by 11.64 million bbl to a record high of 24.73 million bbl.
• OPEC Crude Supply Forecast remains unchanged due to uncertainties, despite the Qatar conflict and political tensions.
• OPEC Crude Exports rose for the second consecutive month, driven by increased shipments from African members.
• Thomson Reuters Oil Research lowered 2017 oil price expectations, reflecting market sentiment and lower US demand growth.
• US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25% for the third time in six months, signaling potential further increases later in the year.

Oil Price Movements

• Crude prices faced downward pressure throughout June, reaching half-year lows during the third week.
• Brent closed at $47.92/bbl, down 5.4% intra-month.
• WTI closed at $46.04/bbl, down 4.8% over the month.
• Volatility remained muted, with the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index oscillating around 30%, below 2016 levels.
• ICE Managed Money Positions declined steadily, with the long/short ratio nearing 2, the lowest since November 2015.

Oil Market Fundamentals

Oil Demand

• Waterborne imports into Europe increased to 8.75 million bpd in June.
• US Crude Imports decreased slightly to 8.06 million bpd from 8.12 million bpd in May.
• Chinese Crude Imports reached a record high of 9.24 million bpd.
• Indian Crude Imports rose to 4.52 million bpd, with Middle Eastern volumes displaced by African crudes.
• OECD Oil Demand Growth for 2017 was revised down to 90,000 bpd from 160,000 bpd.
• World Oil Demand Growth is expected to rise to 1.33 million bpd in 2017 and 1.38 million bpd in 2018.

Northwest Europe Imports

• Crude imports fell by 200,000 bpd to 5.14 million bpd.
• Iran had the largest monthly drop, with volumes falling by 2.92 million bbl.
• Algeria saw a significant drop in exports, while Norwegian Grane imports rose to a record high.
• Libyan Crude Exports increased to a four-year high, with most volumes going to Europe.
• Saudi Arabia increased its exports to a new high of 7.18 million bbl.

Mediterranean Imports

• Iran was the largest supplier, with imports reaching a record high of 24.73 million bbl.
• Libya saw a sharp increase in exports to 14.52 million bbl.
• Nigeria increased its exports to 10.36 million bbl, a five-month high.
• Iraq had the largest monthly drop, with imports falling by 4.92 million bbl.
• Russia decreased its exports, but Urals to India reached a record high of over 4 million bbl.

Oil Supply

• Global Crude Supply remained stable, with OPEC supply unchanged.
• OPEC Crude Exports increased by 450,000 bpd to 25.92 million bpd, driven by African members.
• Qatar maintained its crude export levels despite political tensions with GCC members.
• Nigeria reached a four-year high in exports, while UAE and Algeria saw declines.
• OPEC Non-crude Production is expected to remain stable at around 7 million bpd.

Non-OPEC Supply

• US Unconventional Oil Activity remains the main focus, with Permian region leading the growth.
• US Rig Count Activity is expected to be relatively flat y-o-y in 2017 and 2018, at around 14.83–15.00 million bpd.
• US Crude Production is becoming lighter, with increased blending of condensate affecting the market.
• US Crude Inventories briefly rose in early June but dropped back to May levels by late June.
• Gasoline and Distillates stocks increased, putting pressure on the motor fuel market.

Key Figures and Data

• OPEC Crude Production increased to 31.66 million bpd in June.
• OPEC Crude Exports reached 25.92 million bpd, up from 25.47 million bpd in May.
• Non-OPEC Crude Production is forecasted to remain around 56.44–56.48 million bpd in 2017 and 2018.
• Tropical Storm Cindy disrupted oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, reducing output by 301,618 and 288,186 bpd on 21–22 June.
• Russian Crude Exports (Urals and ESPO) dropped to 2.42 million bpd, the lowest in 2017.
• Novorossiysk Urals Loadings to India hit a record high of over 4 million bbl in June.

Conclusion

The June 2017 oil market was shaped by a mix of geopolitical tensions, seasonal maintenance, and weather disruptions. Despite challenges, demand from key regions like China and India supported some import levels, while OPEC's production and export dynamics remained uncertain. The report underscores the importance of monitoring regional supply changes and the impact of US market conditions on global oil prices.