20260609-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_5页_811kb
报告摘要
CMBI Credit Commentary Summary
📊 Core Market Movements
📈 Positive Performers
- Long-end TENCNTs were 3-5bps wider due to small better selling ahead of new issues.
- Asian Perps marked up 0.1-0.3pt amid PB better buying.
- SOFTBKs recovered 0.3-0.5pt.
- NWDEVL 6.25 Perp and VNKRLE 27-29 edged 0.4-0.5pt higher.
- VNKRLE 3.975 11/09/27 gained 0.4pt.
- TAISEM 2 1/2 10/25/31 gained 0.5pt.
- CDECST 6 1/2 11/18/27 gained 0.6pt.
- VLLPM 7 1/4 07/20/27 gained 1.2pt.
- DAHSIN 7 3/8 11/15/33 gained 0.6pt.
- VLLPM 7 1/4 07/20/27 gained 1.2pt.
📉 Underperformers
- ROADKG 28 lost another 1.8pts.
- GARUDA 31 lost 1.6pts.
- PERTIJ 6 05/03/42 lost 1.3pts.
- SOFTBK 7 1/2 07/10/35 and SOFTBK 8 1/4 10/29/65 both lost 1.2pts.
- FAEACO 12.814 Perp lost 0.6pt.
- GLPSPs were 0.3-1.2pts weaker.
- FTLNHD 27-29 were 0.4pt lower to 0.2pt higher.
📈 Key Market Insights
- LGFV IG USD issues saw two-way flows.
- FOSUNI 28-29 were 0.1-0.2pt lower.
- Chinese/HK properties experienced downward pressure, with ROADKG 28 losing 1.8pts and LNGFOR 27-32s leaking 0.3-0.6pt.
- NWDEVL/VDNWDL complexes were unchanged to 0.5pt lower.
- SE Asian space saw mixed performance, with GARUDA 31 down 1.6pts and SMCGL Perps/INDYIJ 29/MEDCIJ 28-30 leaking 0.1-0.5pt.
- Japanese Insurance subs were 0.3-0.5pt weaker across Japanese and European names due to better-selling flows.
- European AT1s dropped by 0.3-0.4pt amid selling pressure from RMs and prop desks.
- Non-LGFV CNH papers continued to retrace by 0.1-0.3pt.
📊 HNMNWP: New Issue Analysis
- The new HNMNWP 41 has an IPT at mid-high 9%, which is considered roughly fair.
- The issuer is Energy Absolute PCL (EA), which is an offshore SPV of Hanuman Wind Power (HWP).
- The bonds are secured by a package including share pledge over five project companies, mortgage, and other assets.
- The issue size is USD380mn, and the weighted average life is approximately 5.9 years.
- The net proceeds will be used to refinance existing debts, repay related party loans, and fund new renewable projects.
- The take-or-pay PPAs with EGAT are a key support for EA's credit profile.
- EGAT has no history of delayed or missed payments.
- EA operates wind farms in Chaiyaphum province, with a total installed capacity of 260MW.
- EA generated THB3.6bn in revenue and THB3.3bn in EBITDA in FY25, with an EBITDA margin of 93%.
- The debt service coverage ratio is expected to be 1.3-1.4x over the bonds' tenor.
📰 Macro News Recap
- S&P (+0.30%), Dow (-0.16%), Nasdaq (+0.86%) were mixed on Monday.
- 10/30 year UST yield were higher on Monday, with yields at 4.15%/4.29%/4.56%/5.03%.
📢 News and Market Color
- Onshore primary issuances totaled RMB84bn yesterday, with a 71.6% yoy increase for the month-to-date.
- Macau reported a 10% yoy growth in visitor arrivals during the summer holiday season.
- Indonesia is considering easing its 600m-ton coal output ceiling for 2026.
- Alibaba, NIO were accused by the US of aiding Chinese military.
- SK Hynix entered into a multi-year partnership with Nvidia to develop AI semiconductors.
- Kyushu Electric Power reported a missing external storage medium with customer data.
- New World Development raised over HKD2.4bn from the sale of 42 units at Pavilia Rosa.
- Rio Tinto won court approval to acquire the remaining ERA stake.
- Road King AHG will hold a public bondholder call on 9 Jun'26.
- SK Telecom is likely to sign a pact for a 49% stake sale in an AI data center by end-Jun'26.
- Sinochem Holdings appealed an Italian government decision to limit its influence over Pirelli.
- San Miguel Global Power received USD265.358mn in tender offers for SMCGL 5.45 Perp and USD153.542mn for tender offer.
📋 Desk Analyst Comments
- The IPT at mid-high 9% for the new HNMNWP 41 is viewed as fair, considering its smaller operating scale and tenor differential compared to peers.
- The legal proceedings involving Somphote Ahunai, the founder and former CEO of EA, remain ongoing and could affect corporate governance.
- Despite these concerns, the take-or-pay PPAs with EGAT provide key support for EA's credit profile.
📄 Important Disclosures
- This report is not investment advice and should not be used for decision-making without independent evaluation.
- The information is based on publicly available data and may be subject to change.
- CMBIGM may have investment banking relationships with the issuers covered in this report.
- The report is intended for specific recipients and may not be distributed to others without written consent.
- Legal responsibility is limited for non-accredited investors in Singapore.
- In the United States, the report is for major institutional investors only.
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