战略与国际研究中心-Turkey-Update_-EU-Negotiations-And-Domestic-Politics_7页_111kb

EU Negotiations and Domestic Politics in Turkey

Core Content

In late October 2005, Turkey and the European Union (EU) initiated formal accession negotiations in Luxembourg, following a summit decision in December 2004. This marked a significant political achievement for the Justice and Development Party (JDP) government led by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Despite Austria's last-minute attempt to propose a "privileged partnership" instead of full membership, which Turkey rejected, the negotiations proceeded, signaling the EU's recognition of Turkey's reforms and commitment to Western integration.

Main Points

• Domestic Political Stability: The JDP government enjoyed a dominant position in the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TGNA) and public opinion during the first half of its term, due to its majority, economic success, and the weakness of opposition parties.
• Economic Performance: The JDP's economic policies led to impressive growth (9.9% in 2004), reduced inflation, stabilized the lira/dollar exchange, and improved the public debt-to-GNP ratio, from 91% in 2001 to 65% in 2004.
• EU Membership as a Political Tool: The JDP used the EU accession process as a unifying and legitimizing factor, appealing to the broader Turkish public and allaying fears about its Islamist leanings.
• Reforms and Secular Institutions: The JDP avoided controversial moves that could have upset the secular establishment, such as easing headscarf restrictions or altering the status of religious schools, thereby maintaining stability with President Ahmet Necdet Sezer and the military.
• Cyprus as a Major Obstacle: The unresolved Cyprus issue, particularly the EU's insistence on expanding the Ankara Protocol to include Cyprus, posed a significant challenge. The JDP had supported the UN peace plan for Cyprus but was frustrated by the EU's stance and the lack of progress on recognizing the Turkish Cypriot community.
• Political Risks of EU Accession: The EU process introduced domestic political uncertainties, especially as the JDP faced potential challenges from coalition and opposition parties, and as the prospect of early elections loomed.

Key Information

• EU Summit Decision (2004): The EU agreed to begin accession talks with Turkey in October 2005, following the JDP's reform efforts.
• Ankara Protocol Expansion: The EU required Turkey to expand the Ankara Protocol to include all member states, including Cyprus, before negotiations could start. This was a sticking point for the JDP, which resisted EU pressure on Cyprus.
• JDP's Domestic Strategy: The EU process was central to the JDP's political strategy, serving as a means to consolidate power and maintain public support.
• Challenges Ahead: The EU negotiations are expected to be lengthy and complex, with Cyprus, the Kurdish issue, and the Armenian genocide resolution being key points of contention.
• Presidential Election Debates: The issue of the presidency became a point of political contention, with the RPP leader Deniz Baykal pushing for early elections to select a new president, which the JDP opposed as it could jeopardize economic stability.
• EU's Geopolitical Concerns: European leaders, particularly France and Germany, expressed reservations about Turkey's accession, emphasizing the need for cultural and political reforms, and highlighting the importance of public opinion in the final decision.

Domestic Political Implications

• The JDP's long-standing dominance may be challenged as the EU negotiations progress, especially if the process stalls or if public dissatisfaction grows.
• The JDP's cautious approach to domestic reforms has helped avoid major confrontations with secular institutions but has also been criticized by some supporters and Islamist groups.
• The EU's insistence on certain conditions, such as the Cyprus issue and human rights, may create internal tensions within the JDP and affect its ability to maintain unity.
• The political landscape is shifting with the emergence of new parties and the potential for defections, which could lead to a more competitive environment in the upcoming 2007 elections.

Conclusion

The EU accession negotiations represent both a political and economic milestone for Turkey, but they also introduce new challenges. The JDP government, while currently in a strong position, must navigate complex domestic and international dynamics, including the Cyprus issue, public opinion, and the potential for political fragmentation. The success of the EU process will have far-reaching implications for the JDP's continued dominance and the future of Turkish politics.