黄金指南针报告（2025年6月）_81页_3mb

In Gold We Trust:

• Gold and Silver Analysis：

  • Gold has shown consistent long-term growth (CAGR 10.1% for Gold, 7.4% for Silver).
  • Gold is viewed as a global currency not tied to counterparty.
  • Silver is harder to trade profitably but shows strong performance in certain periods.
  • Miner stocks (HUI/GDX) have outperformed gold significantly in some cycles, especially in Bear markets.

• Macro Insights：

  • Global inflation varies widely (e.g., US at ~5.4%, China near 0.20%, developed markets mostly above 4%).
  • Volume analysis shows Non-commercial traders are Net Long Gold/Silver (avg position ~250k+ D tonnes), signaling confidence.
  • Recession phases (1-5) show gold performing strongly in later stages, contributing to ~32% of incremental returns.

• Proprietary Models：

  • The Incrementum Recession Phase model divides recessions into five stages, with gold showing strong tail performance.
  • Signal models (e.g., Inflation Signal) help allocate capital to gain market exposure.
  • Gold is used to hedge against central bank policies, interest rates, and inflation uncertainty.

• Prophecies and Visuals：

  • Gold is projected to rise to $>12,500 in 2030, making $10,000 the probability-weighted peak.
  • Long-term charts show gold as a less volatile safe haven compared to equities and BTC.

• Overall Rationale：

  • Gold aligns with historical trends in currency debasements; rising commodities and Non-commercial longs indicate market stress.
  • The report favors gold as an inflation hedge and safe asset, especially in transitioning monetary environments.