20171113-法国巴黎银行-South_African_politics_Conference_primer_7页_384kb

Summary of South African Politics: Conference Primer

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the African National Congress (ANC) leadership contest in South Africa, focusing on the upcoming 54th National Conference scheduled for December 2017. It outlines the structure of the conference, the nomination process, and the current state of support for potential candidates. The author, Nic Borain, is a senior political analyst at BNP Paribas South Africa and emphasizes the lack of clear indicators for the outcome of the leadership contest.

Main Views

• The ANC leadership contest is ongoing, and it is too early to determine the likely winner.
• The 54th National Conference will be held from 16 to 20 December 2017.
• The conference is the highest decision-making body of the ANC and will decide on the party's top leadership and policy direction.
• Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and Cyril Ramaphosa are the two main candidates for the presidency.
• The nomination process is based on the ANC constitution, which requires a majority of branches in at least one province to nominate a candidate for the top six positions.
• The final deadline for branch general meetings is 15 November 2017, though some branches have delayed due to disputes.
• Voting for the top six positions is expected to occur in one night, with results announced the following night, limiting the possibility of backroom compromises.

Key Information

Delegates Allocation

• Total delegates are expected to be around 4,731, with 389 supporting Dlamini-Zuma and 764 supporting Ramaphosa.
• Branch delegates make up the majority, with at least 90% coming from the ANC's 4,300 branches.
• Non-branch delegates include those from the Women's League, Youth League, Veterans' League, National Executive Committee, and provincial bodies.

Provincial Support

Non-Branch Delegates

Total Non-Branch Delegates

• Total non-branch delegates: 397 (2012), estimated at 427-473 for 2017.
• Dlamini-Zuma support: 174-214+
• Ramaphosa support: 109+
• Others support: 3+

Leadership Team Nominations

• Cyril Ramaphosa has announced his preferred candidates for most of the top six positions:
  • Deputy President: Naledi Pandoor
  • Secretary-General: Zenzo Mchunu
  • National Chair: Gwede Mantashe
  • Treasurer General: Paul Mashatile
• Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma has not yet announced her preferred candidates for the other ANC positions.

Important Disclaimer

• The views expressed in this document are the personal views of Nic Borain and not necessarily those of BNP Paribas.
• This document is for informational purposes and does not contain investment recommendations.
• It is intended for Relevant Persons as defined under MiFID and other local regulations.
• The information is based on public sources and has not been independently verified.
• The document may not be suitable for all investors and is not intended to provide financial, legal, or tax advice.
• BNP Paribas and its affiliates may have financial interests in the issuers mentioned and may act as market makers or traders.
• No liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on the information contained in this document.

Legal Notices

• The document is subject to various legal notices depending on the jurisdiction.
• It is distributed by BNP Paribas in different countries under the relevant laws and regulations.
• In some countries, such as the United States, it is only distributed to certain institutional investors.
• In others, like China, it is distributed to clients in compliance with local capital market laws.

Conclusion

The ANC leadership contest remains uncertain, with no clear indication of who will succeed Jacob Zuma. The 54th National Conference will be a critical event for determining the party's future direction and leadership. The nomination process is complex and involves a mix of branch and non-branch delegates, with Ramaphosa and Dlamini-Zuma leading the way. The document emphasizes the importance of due diligence and independent advice when considering any investment or political decisions based on the information provided.