2021-10-12-牛津经济研究院-US_Recovery_patterns_reflect_tourism_and_office-based_sector_exposure_6页_382kb

US Regional Outlook Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the US economic recovery patterns from 2020 to 2021, focusing on GDP and employment growth across different regions and metropolitan areas. It highlights the impact of the pandemic, the Delta variant, and vaccination rates on economic performance, as well as the role of tourism and office-based sectors in shaping recovery outcomes.

Main Points

GDP Growth in 2021

• Top Performing Metros: San Jose, Nashville, Orlando, and Austin outperformed in GDP growth in 2021.
• Lagging Metros: New York and DC trailed in GDP growth.
• National Recovery: US GDP reached its pre-pandemic peak in Q2 2021, but the pace of recovery slowed due to the Delta variant.
• State-Level Recovery: 38 states had returned to pre-pandemic GDP levels by the end of 2021, while Hawaii and New York were expected to surpass their peaks in 2022.
• GDP Growth Rates: Eastern and Midwest states had lower GDP growth rates (5.2% and 5.6%) compared to Southwest & Mountains (6.0%) and Southern states (5.7%) in 2021. In 2022, all regions are expected to see a slowdown in GDP growth, converging to average rates of 4.1% to 4.6%.

Employment Recovery

• Job Recovery: By Q3 2022, the US is forecasted to recover all jobs lost during the pandemic.
• State-Level Recovery: Seven states (Arizona, Arkansas, Idaho, Montana, South Dakota, Texas, and Utah) are expected to recover all lost jobs by the end of 2021. Another 26 states will do so by the end of 2022.
• Slow Recovery States: Seven states (Connecticut, Illinois, Louisiana, Michigan, New Mexico, West Virginia, and Wyoming) are not expected to recover their pre-pandemic job levels until beyond 2026, due to their reliance on industries like mining, energy, and manufacturing, which are expected to remain flat due to automation.

Tourism Impact

• Tourism Drag: Tourism-related sectors (restaurants, hotels, arts, and entertainment) have been a major factor in the slower recovery of many metros.
• Top 10 and Bottom 10 Metros: Table 1 lists the top and bottom 10 metros in terms of employment growth from Q1 2020 to Q2 2021. The bottom 10 are heavily impacted by tourism losses, with some metros (e.g., New York, Los Angeles, Las Vegas) also suffering from office-based sector declines.

Office-Based Sector Recovery

• Office Market Challenges: Major metros like New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago have struggled with office-based employment recovery due to the shift to remote work and the decline in business travel.
• Office-Based Growth: Recovery rates for office-based employment reflect pre-pandemic trends. South and Southwest & Mountains regions had stronger growth both before and after the pandemic, while Midwest metros had weaker gains prior to the pandemic and slower recovery rates.
• Office Job Recovery: Eight of the top 50 metros have recovered their office job losses, including Austin, Tampa, Raleigh, and Nashville.

Future Outlook

• 2023-2027 Growth: GDP and employment growth forecasts for the top metros indicate that tech-heavy areas like San Jose, Seattle, and San Francisco will lead in GDP growth, while Phoenix, Orlando, and Tampa will see strong employment growth due to lower costs attracting workers away from the coasts.
• Long-Term Trends: Tech-heavy metros are expected to see the highest GDP growth over the next five years, driven by their information (tech) sectors. Austin and Raleigh, with more diversified economies, are expected to see healthier job growth compared to their tech peers.

Key Information

• Vaccination Rates: By the end of September 2021, the US had a 54% full vaccination rate, with some states experiencing a rise in caseloads due to low vaccination rates.
• Delta Variant Impact: The Delta variant caused a fourth surge in cases, particularly in states with low vaccination rates, leading to a slowdown in economic growth.
• Regional Disparities: Economic recovery rates are more closely related to the return to on-site work and travel levels than vaccination rates. Coastal states have been more affected by the decline in travel and office-based sectors.
• Data Sources: All data and forecasts are based on Oxford Economics' models and data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Conclusion

The US economic recovery has been uneven across regions and metros, influenced by factors such as the return to on-site work, travel patterns, and sector-specific vulnerabilities. While some areas like San Jose, Seattle, and San Francisco have led in GDP growth, others like New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago have lagged due to their reliance on office-based industries and tourism. The long-term outlook suggests continued growth in tech-heavy regions, but slower recovery in areas with heavy dependence on sectors affected by automation and reduced travel.