20230904-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_5页_1mb

Fixed Income Credit Commentary - Sep 4, 2023

Market Summary

• Bond Spreads and Yields: High-beta TMT bonds saw HRINTHs rise 1-15 pts and CCAMCLs tighten 3-5bps. Chinese properties experienced higher yields across key papers like FUTLANs and FTLOHNDs due to policy relaxations. Treasury yields rallied, with 2/5/10/30-year yields reaching 4.87%/4.29%/4.18%/4.29%.

China Properties

• Policy Relaxations: New measures from regulators (e.g., central bank and Ministry of Housing) reduced purchase restrictions, lowered down payment ratios, and targeted boosting demand in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen. Expected beneficiaries include state-owned developers and T1/2-focused firms. Non-state-owned developers like Hopson and Yanlord are favored for their growth potential.

Macau Gaming

• GGR Recovery: GGR increased 686% YoY to MOP17.2bn in Aug 23, with cumulative GGR up 295.1% YoY. Credit profiles improved as operators' adj. EBITDA turned positive; the sector benefits from tourism rebound and capex stability.

Trading Desk Insights

• Daily Activity: Key movers included China property perps (e.g., NWDEVL, NWSZF), Macau gaming bonds, and industrial papers. Flows were thin due to holidays; properties outperformed with perps rising 3-45 pts. Indian and Indonesian energy names mixed, with VEDLN higher and LPKRIJ lower.

Macro News Highlights

• Global Data: US NFP beat expectations at +187k, manufacturing PMI rose to 47.9%. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI increased to 51.0%, above expectations. US stocks mixed after data; Asian credits adjusted amid policy shifts.

Analyst Key Comments

• NWD/NWS: Maintaining NWS listing status aligns with CTF's liquidity support goals; bridging loans secured target minimum free float. Next hurdles: regulatory approvals and NWD shareholder EGM.
• Macau Gaming: Continued GGR acceleration supports sector credit recovery; sectors like gaming and F&B show strong resilience amid durable goods slowdown.
• ** Risks/N events**: Property confidence remains weak due to unfinished projects; offshoots like Country Garden's debt extension and banking rate cuts noted.

Note: Removed uncategorized "China Properties" in the summary structure above.