2021-10-12-IMF-IMF世界经济展望（2021年10月）_下调今年全球经济增长预期至5.9_172页_6mb

World Economic Outlook Summary: Recovery During a Pandemic

Core Content

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October 2021 provides an analysis of the global economic recovery in the context of the ongoing pandemic, highlighting key challenges such as health concerns, supply disruptions, and rising price pressures. It also emphasizes the importance of research and innovation in addressing the pandemic and promoting long-term growth, as well as the need for coordinated international policy responses to mitigate economic divergences and climate change impacts.

Main Views

Global Recovery and Pandemic Impact

• The global recovery continues but has weakened due to the resurgence of the pandemic, particularly the highly transmissible Delta variant.
• The global death toll from COVID-19 has risen close to 5 million, and health risks remain high, delaying the return to normalcy.
• Pandemic outbreaks have disrupted critical supply chains, leading to prolonged supply shortages and contributing to inflationary pressures.
• Labor market recovery has lagged behind output recovery, especially in contact-intensive sectors.

Economic Divergence

• Advanced economies are projected to regain their pre-pandemic output trend by 2022 and exceed it by 0.9% in 2024.
• Emerging market and developing economies (excluding China) are expected to remain 5.5% below the pre-pandemic forecast in 2024, worsening living standards.
• These divergences are driven by unequal vaccine access, differing policy support, and financial constraints in developing economies.

Inflation Trends and Risks

• Inflation is rising, with notable increases in the United States, Germany, and many emerging and developing economies.
• Food price inflation is particularly acute in low-income countries, where food insecurity is high, affecting poorer households and increasing social unrest risks.
• Inflation expectations are a key factor in inflation dynamics, and central banks must be prepared to respond quickly if inflation expectations become more significant.

Policy Responses

• Fiscal Policy: Policy support is being withdrawn more rapidly in emerging and developing economies due to tighter financing conditions and inflation risks.
• Monetary Policy: Central banks face a difficult balance between controlling inflation and supporting recovery. They should be ready to act if inflation expectations become more material.
• Health and Vaccination: Vaccination efforts must continue, with the G7 and G20 countries fulfilling dose donation pledges and coordinating with manufacturers to prioritize COVAX deliveries.
• Climate Change: Addressing climate change is an urgent priority, with a need for stronger commitments at COP26 and for a global carbon price floor, green public investment, and targeted transfers to households.

Key Information

Projections

• Global growth for 2021 is revised down to 5.9%, while it remains at 4.9% for 2022.
• Advanced economies are expected to recover more quickly than emerging and developing economies.
• Commodity price increases have led to upgrades in projections for some commodity exporters.

Challenges

• Supply Disruptions: Prolonged shortages of key inputs and manufacturing activity slowdowns.
• Price Pressures: Rapid rise in consumer price inflation, especially in the US and EU.
• Vaccine Inequality: Low-income countries have only about 96% of their population unvaccinated, compared to over 60% in advanced economies.
• Climate Risks: Rising global temperatures and adverse health/economic effects of climate change require immediate and coordinated action.

Recommendations

• Vaccination and Health: Ensure equitable vaccine distribution and support for testing, therapeutics, and genomic surveillance.
• Debt Restructuring: Accelerate the implementation of the G20 common framework to restructure unsustainable debt.
• International Liquidity: Support constrained economies with adequate international liquidity.
• Research and Innovation: Increase investment in basic scientific research to drive productivity and long-term growth.
• Policy Coordination: Align national policies with local pandemic and economic conditions, prioritizing healthcare spending and targeted transfers.

Supporting Elements

• Scenario Analysis: Includes downside scenarios such as house price shocks, job market shifts, and monetary expansion risks.
• Data and Assumptions: Projections are based on assumptions about exchange rates, oil prices, and interest rates, with some data estimated rather than based on actual outturns.
• Data Availability: Some countries use fiscal years instead of calendar years, and data for 2020 and earlier may be based on estimates.

Structure and Organization

• The report is divided into three main chapters: Global Prospects and Policies, Inflation Scares, and Research and Innovation.
• It includes a Statistical Appendix with detailed tables and figures covering GDP, inflation, fiscal indicators, and trade data.
• Online Tables and Figures provide additional insights into economic indicators and scenarios.
• The Executive Summary outlines the key findings and policy implications.
• The Corrections and Revisions section highlights the accuracy and updating process of the data.

Conclusion

The WEO underscores the complex interplay between the pandemic, inflation, and climate change in shaping the global economic outlook. It calls for a balanced and targeted policy response, with an emphasis on health, innovation, and international cooperation to ensure a resilient and equitable recovery.