2017年-世界发展银行全球_Bangladesh_Jobs_Diagnostic_120页_9mb

Bangladesh Jobs Diagnostic Summary

Core Content

This report, titled Bangladesh Jobs Diagnostic, provides a comprehensive analysis of the labor market in Bangladesh, highlighting the country's progress in poverty reduction and job creation, as well as the ongoing challenges in job quality, inclusivity, and productivity. It serves as a basis for developing a national jobs strategy that supports inclusive and sustainable growth.

Main Findings

1. Economic Growth and Job Creation

• Poverty Reduction and Growth: Bangladesh has experienced significant poverty reduction over the past two decades, with the extreme poverty rate falling from ~33.7% in 2000 to below 13% in 2016. This progress is largely attributed to increased labor earnings and positive labor market developments.
• Per Capita Income Growth: Per capita real GDP doubled between 2000 and 2016, driven by strong job creation, structural transformation, and productivity growth.
• Job Growth Trends: Annual employment growth was 3.1% (2003–2010), but slowed to 1.8% (2010–2016). Despite this, the country has seen substantial growth in female employment, with rates more than doubling compared to the working-age population as a whole.
• Productivity Levels: Overall worker productivity in Bangladesh remains low, at half the South Asian average, less than 40% of the lower-middle income country average, and less than a tenth of the global average. Manufacturing productivity growth has been weak, with average annual growth of 1.6% (2003–2010) and 2.2% (2010–2016).

2. Job Quality and Inclusivity

• Informal Employment: A large majority of workers are engaged in informal, unpaid, or subsistence-level agricultural work. Only 22% of male and 20% of female workers are wage employees.
• Gender Disparities: Female labor force participation (LFP) is significantly lower than male (37% vs. 90% in 2003). In 2016, female LFP was 85%, still below the lower-middle income country average (39%) and middle-income country average (48%). Women are more likely to be in unpaid work (39%) and agriculture (63% of female workers), while men are more likely to be in day labor.
• Unpaid Work and Underemployment: Unpaid work and underemployment are common, particularly in the agricultural sector.

3. Youth Employment Challenges

• Youth Unemployment: Youth unemployment rates have spiked in recent years, while older workers have remained stable. This suggests that youth are disproportionately affected by the slowdown in job creation.
• School-to-Work Transition: Better-educated youth face higher unemployment due to limited availability of quality jobs. There is a lack of targeted programs to support youth employment, such as skills development, job intermediation, or entrepreneurship support.

4. Enterprise and Spatial Transformations

• Microenterprises Dominance: Microenterprises, including household and temporary establishments, account for 98% of economic units and 50% of all jobs. They are not positioned for growth, contributing to low productivity.
• Large Firms: Firms with more than 500 workers account for only 0.04% of firms but 15% of all jobs, mainly in the RMG sector.
• Urbanization and Dhaka: Dhaka is the primary hub for job creation, with 45% of all industry jobs and 37% of service jobs. However, rapid urbanization has led to severe congestion and infrastructure bottlenecks, limiting access to quality jobs in other regions.
• Secondary Cities: These cities lack the infrastructure and services needed to attract skilled workers, making them less favorable for industrial investment.

5. International Migration

• Outmigration Trends: Over the past decade, an average of 544,000 Bangladeshi workers migrated abroad annually. In 2016, this number rose to 750,000, with women comprising 16% of outmigrants for the first time.
• Push and Pull Factors: Domestic job creation slowdown and a growing working-age population are push factors, while high wages in the Middle East and other regions are pull factors.
• Sectoral Concentration: Migrants are heavily concentrated in construction (males) and domestic work (females), highlighting the need for skills diversification.
• Migration Costs: Bangladesh has some of the world’s highest migration costs, leading to heavy indebtedness and overstay among migrant workers.

Key Challenges

• Slowing Job Growth: Despite economic growth, the pace of job creation has slowed.
• Low Productivity: Productivity remains low across all sectors, particularly in manufacturing.
• Informal Employment: A significant portion of the workforce is engaged in informal or unpaid work.
• Gender Gaps: Persistent gender disparities in LFP and job quality.
• Youth Employment: High unemployment among youth, driven by demographic pressures and lack of targeted support.
• Enterprise Constraints: Limited growth of microenterprises and lack of diversification in employment sectors.
• Spatial Inequality: Job opportunities are concentrated in Dhaka, with secondary cities lagging in infrastructure and access to quality jobs.

Policy Directions

• Increase Job Creation: Diversify manufacturing and services, boost exports and foreign direct investment, and accelerate productivity growth.
• Improve Job Quality: Implement policies that enhance firm and worker productivity, expand access to worker protection, and improve labor mobility.
• Connect Vulnerable Workers to Jobs: Address specific needs of vulnerable groups, such as reducing barriers to female LFP, supporting youth transitions, and lowering migration costs.
• Enhance Spatial Integration: Improve infrastructure and services in secondary cities to support industrial growth and reduce urban congestion.
• Support Enterprise Growth: Encourage growth and diversification of SMEs and improve the investment climate.
• Strengthen Social Protection: Expand worker protection and social insurance to support vulnerable populations.

Data and Methodology

• Macro Analysis: Uses data from the World Bank's WDI Database and national accounts (FY1981–FY2016).
• Microdata Sources: Includes the Labor Force Survey (LFS), Quarterly Labor Force Survey (QLFS), and Survey on Investment from Remittances (SIR) for supply-side analysis. Demand-side analysis draws on the Economic Census and Survey of Manufacturing Industries (SMI).

Conclusion

The Bangladesh Jobs Diagnostic emphasizes the need for a comprehensive, evidence-based national jobs strategy. It underscores the importance of structural, sectoral, and spatial transformations in driving job creation and quality. The report also highlights the critical role of policies that promote productivity, inclusivity, and access to better employment opportunities for all segments of the population, especially women and youth.