20140821-Maybank_KERPL-Best-guarded_hospital_12页_987kb
报告摘要
Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BGHTB) Summary
Core Content
Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BGHTB) is a leading healthcare provider in Thailand, with a strong growth outlook and a focus on expanding its hospital network and non-hospital operations. The company is currently trading at THB18.10, with a target price of THB22.00, implying a 22% increase. The market capitalization is USD8.8 billion, and the average daily trading volume is USD22 million.
Main Points
- Expansion Plan: BGH aims to increase its hospital portfolio from 34 to 50 by the end of 2015, including nine greenfield projects and seven M&A acquisitions. The total investment is estimated at THB19-22 billion.
- Recent Performance: In 2Q14, BGH's net profit rose 7% YoY, and hospital revenue increased 9% YoY. Operational EBITDA margin expanded to 19.6% due to cost control measures.
- Growth Projections: Management maintains a growth forecast of 11%-13% for 2014, with 8%-10% from existing hospitals and 3% from new hospitals. It expects a net profit margin of 12% and EBITDA margin of 22%-23%.
- Non-Hospital Business: BGH's non-hospital revenue has shown a 20% 3-year CAGR. Key areas include central laboratories, IT services, pharmaceuticals, insurance, and transportation services.
- Acquisition of Save Drug Center: BGH plans to acquire Save Drug Center for THB380 million, which will strengthen its presence in the allied hospital business and support long-term growth.
- M&A Strategy: BGH is targeting seven hospitals in 2H14-2015, focusing on regions with weaker networks and high financial flexibility. There are 13 potential candidates for acquisition.
- Valuation Metrics: BGH's PEG is 1.3x, lower than regional peers at 1.5x. The company is expected to trade at a premium due to its strong long-term growth outlook and potential M&A activities.
Key Financial Data
| FYE Dec (THB m) | FY12A | FY13A | FY14E | FY15E | FY16E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 44,307.3 | 49,169.9 | 54,690.3 | 65,562.8 | 78,498.3 |
| EBITDA | 10,753.7 | 10,914.4 | 12,266.1 | 14,740.9 | 17,792.4 |
| Core net profit | 7,849.2 | 6,261.5 | 7,004.8 | 8,889.0 | 11,095.3 |
| Core EPS (THB) | 0.51 | 0.40 | 0.45 | 0.57 | 0.72 |
| Core EPS growth (%) | (82.1) | (20.4) | 11.9 | 26.9 | 24.8 |
| Net DPS (THB) | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| Core P/E (x) | 35.6 | 44.8 | 40.0 | 31.5 | 25.3 |
| P/BV (x) | 7.6 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 4.8 |
| Net dividend yield (%) | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| ROAE (%) | 23.0 | 16.2 | 16.4 | 18.5 | 20.3 |
| ROAA (%) | 12.3 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 10.4 | 11.9 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 17.9 | 18.6 | 24.4 | 20.1 | 16.5 |
| Net debt/equity (%) | 43.3 | 45.6 | 38.2 | 25.1 | 17.6 |
Key Takeaways from Analyst Meeting
- 2Q14 Recap: Net profit increased 7% YoY, with hospital revenue up 9% YoY. Both volume and price showed growth despite political uncertainty.
- Utilisation Rate: 63% in 2Q14, with 9% added capacity. The company expects improved efficiency and volume growth from its nationwide network.
- Non-Hospital Revenue: Continuous growth with a 20% 3-year CAGR. Allied businesses such as central labs, IT services, and pharmaceuticals are expected to add value to the company's revenue and profit.
- M&A Impact: The acquisition of Save Drug Center is expected to contribute 0.8% of total revenue and 0.1% to net profit in 2015.
Analyst Recommendations
- Consensus View: 72% of analysts recommend a BUY, with an average target price of THB18.3. The stock is seen as a good investment due to its strong growth outlook and potential M&A.
- Market Position: BGH is currently trading at 33x FY15F PER and 21x EV/EBITDA, which are higher than Thai peers. It is expected to trade at a premium due to its long-term growth potential.
Peer Comparison
| Company | PER (2014F) | PER (2015F) | PBV (2014F) | PBV (2015F) | EV/EBITDA (2014F) | EV/EBITDA (2015F) | Dividend Yield (2014F) | Dividend Yield (2015F) | ROE (2014F) | ROE (2015F) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bangkok Dusit Medical Services | 39.1 | 32.9 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 24.2 | 20.8 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 16.7 | 17.7 |
| Average Thai Hospital | 34.8 | 29.7 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 20.8 | 18.0 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 19.5 | 20.6 |
| Ramsay Health Care | 31.0 | 26.0 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 16.2 | 12.3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 20.2 | 21.2 |
| Virtus Health | 20.2 | 16.8 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 12.1 | 10.4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 14.3 | 15.6 |
| Greencross | 44.4 | 29.9 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 8.9 |
| Ryman Healthcare | 31.3 | 27.6 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 23.7 | 20.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 12.0 | 12.7 |
| Raffles Medical Group | 47.7 | 42.1 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 24.7 | 21.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 11.8 | 12.4 |
| Apollo Hospitals Enterprise | 47.7 | 42.1 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 24.7 | 21.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 11.8 | 12.4 |
| IHH Healthcare | 52.1 | 43.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 23.0 | 20.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 4.1 | 4.7 |
Summary
Bangkok Dusit Medical Services is a strong player in the Thai healthcare industry, with a clear expansion strategy and a focus on both hospital and non-hospital operations. The company is expected to grow its hospital network to 50 by 2015, with a target of increasing its bed capacity by 31% over the next three years. Analysts maintain a BUY recommendation, citing strong long-term growth potential, solid earnings growth, and the potential for M&A to support the share price in the short term. The company's non-hospital businesses are also expected to contribute significantly to its revenue and profit. Despite some concerns about valuation, the consensus remains bullish, with an average target price of THB18.3. BGH is seen as trading at a premium due to its strong fundamentals and strategic initiatives.
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