2013年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_The_EUs_Limited_Response_to_Belarus_Pseudo_New_Foreign_Policy_10页_112kb

EU-Belarus Relations Summary

Core Content

The relationship between the European Union (EU) and Belarus has remained largely unchanged since Alexander Lukashenko came to power in 1994. Despite several waves of EU enlargement and the formulation of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) in 2004, Belarus has not integrated into the EU framework. The EU has pursued a dual-track strategy of imposing sanctions and trade restrictions while promoting democratisation and human rights, but this approach has yielded minimal results.

Main Views

• EU's Policy Towards Belarus
  The EU has consistently called for democratic reforms, free elections, and respect for human rights, but has not succeeded in influencing the political direction of Belarus. The EU has also provided limited financial aid, primarily for social and environmental projects, and has not established a formal political dialogue with Belarus. The EU's leverage remains constrained due to the lack of a clear framework and Belarus' continued alignment with Russia.

• Oil and Gas Crisis and Russia's Policy Shift
  The 2006-2007 energy crisis with Russia led to a temporary shift in Belarus' stance towards the EU, with Lukashenko reducing his anti-European rhetoric. However, this change was short-lived, as Belarus quickly realigned with Russia. The crisis resulted in increased energy prices for Belarus, creating a financial burden, but the country still relies heavily on Russian subsidies and economic support.

• Lukashenko's 'New Foreign Policy'
  Lukashenko introduced a 'new foreign policy' to reduce dependency on Russia and increase cooperation with the EU, particularly in energy and trade. This policy included efforts to diversify energy sources and attract EU investment. However, it did not translate into genuine democratic reforms or a shift in political orientation. Instead, it was seen as a strategic move to counter Russian pressure and maintain his political base.

• EU Engagement Post-Crisis
  The EU has not made significant changes to its policy towards Belarus, but has shown a willingness to engage more technically, especially in the energy sector. The EU continues to support independent media and civil society through various initiatives, though these efforts have limited reach due to state control over media and the lack of access to the internet for most Belarusians. The EU remains focused on encouraging Belarus to implement the democratisation measures outlined in its December 2006 non-paper, but Belarus has not taken these seriously.

Key Information

• Political Isolation: Belarus has been politically isolated since Lukashenko's rise to power, with the EU refusing to back its Council of Europe membership.
• Economic Impact: The energy crisis led to a significant increase in energy costs for Belarus, with gas prices rising from $46.68 to $100 per 1000 cubic meters in 2007. The EU's trade restrictions and removal of GSP benefits have had a limited impact on Belarusian trade.
• Democratisation Measures: The EU's non-paper outlines a series of required reforms, including free elections, independent media, and the release of political prisoners. However, these measures have not been implemented, and the EU has not seen any substantial political change in Belarus.
• Energy Cooperation: The EU and Belarus have started preliminary discussions on energy cooperation, with the EU aiming to establish a dialogue and an early warning mechanism. However, the EU remains cautious due to concerns over Russian control of energy infrastructure.
• Public Support for EU: Despite the lack of political reform, opinion polls suggest that over 50% of Belarusians support closer cooperation with the EU, and 36% would support EU accession in a referendum.

Conclusion

The energy crisis with Russia did not fundamentally alter the dynamics of EU-Belarus relations. While Belarus briefly showed interest in improving ties with the EU, this was more of a strategic move to counter Russian influence rather than a genuine shift in political orientation. The EU, on the other hand, has not been able to significantly increase its leverage over Belarus, and remains focused on encouraging political reforms and supporting civil society and media. The relationship is still shaped by Belarus' reliance on Russia and its authoritarian regime, which continues to resist EU integration.