世界银行-秘鲁_抓住增长和繁荣的机遇（英）-2025_179页_5mb

Peru: Summarizing Growth Opportunities and Challenges

Peru experienced strong economic growth in the 2000s, driven by commodity price booms, which helped reduce poverty and increase investment. However, growth slowed in the 2010s due to falling commodity prices, weak productivity, and structural barriers. The country risks staying in the "middle-income trap," with projections suggesting it could take until 2045 to reach high-income status through reforms.

The global energy transition presents a key opportunity, particularly for the mining sector, as Peru has significant copper reserves. Catalyzing Total Factor Productivity (TFP), human capital, and investment is crucial. By adopting a Climate-Smart Mining approach, Peru could attract investments, boost GDP growth, and reach high-income status faster.

Challenges include low formal firm productivity, high informality (nearly 60% of employment), spatial inequality, and weak institutions. Labor regulations, profit-sharing policies, and complex bureaucracy hinder firm growth. Climate change threatens to exacerbate regional disparities, especially in lagging areas.

To achieve sustainable high growth, Peru must intensify reforms in productivity, investment, human capital, and institutions. Public investment management needs streamlining to improve project completion rates, currently averaging around 70%. Strengthening the civil service and procurement processes could accelerate outcomes.

Regional convergence has occurred but remains incomplete. Investing in underserved areas, improving local institutions, and addressing climate vulnerabilities are essential for balanced development. Combating informality and boosting female labor force participation could unlock productivity gains. Peru's strategic focus on the energy transition, human capital, and institutional reforms will drive inclusive and sustainable growth.

Key Recommendations:

• Implement labor reforms to enhance flexibility and innovation.
• Simplify tax regimes and improve SUNAT's capabilities to broaden the tax base.
• Strengthen public investment management and procurement to reduce delays and cost overruns.
• Promote regional economic integration and address territorial disparities through targeted investments.