世界银行：下行的长期增长前景：趋势、期望和政策报告_564页_7mb

Summary of "Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects"

Core Content

This book, Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects: Trends, Expectations, and Policies, edited by M. Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge, presents a comprehensive analysis of the global economic slowdown, focusing on the decline in long-term growth potential. It argues that the drivers of past economic growth—such as productivity, investment, and globalization—are now weakening, leading to a prolonged period of economic stagnation. The authors emphasize the need for bold national and global policy actions to address this issue.

The book is structured into three main parts:

• Part I examines potential growth and its drivers, introducing a global database of potential growth estimates for over 170 countries over a 40-year period.
• Part II discusses the global and regional investment slowdown, analyzing the challenges and policy responses needed to revive investment.
• Part III explores various policy interventions aimed at boosting potential growth, including monetary and fiscal alignment, trade cost reduction, and services-led growth strategies.

Main Views and Key Findings

Global Growth Slowdown

• The world is experiencing a sustained decline in long-term growth prospects, driven by weakening productivity, low investment, and demographic and climate change factors.
• The global average potential GDP growth rate is expected to fall to 2.2% per year by 2030, down from 2.6% in 2011–21 and 3.5% in the early 2000s.
• Developing economies face an even sharper decline, with potential growth rates dropping from 6% (2000–2010) to 5% (2011–21) and 4% (2022–2030).

Drivers of the Slowdown

• Demographic changes: Aging populations in advanced economies and stagnant labor force growth in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) are reducing growth potential.
• Climate change: Its impact is reducing productivity and increasing the cost of capital, which hampers long-term growth.
• Globalization slowdown: Trade and investment growth have slowed, and the benefits of global integration are diminishing.
• Institutional and policy challenges: Weak property rights, inefficient markets, and shallow financial systems are hindering private sector development and investment.

Policy Recommendations

• Boost investment: A global push for investment, especially in climate-related areas like energy, transport, and agriculture, can raise potential growth by 0.3% per year.
• Align monetary and fiscal frameworks: Coordinated macroeconomic policies can stabilize economies, attract investment, and enhance investor confidence.
• Reduce trade costs: Lowering trade costs—particularly through better logistics, shipping, and regulatory practices—can significantly enhance growth. Countries with high trade costs could reduce them by 50% by adopting best practices.
• Leverage the services sector: As goods trade declines, the services sector is becoming a more important growth driver. Digital services, especially in information and communications technology (ICT), are growing rapidly and offer new opportunities for developing economies.
• Increase labor-force participation: Particularly among women and older workers, could raise global potential growth by 0.2% by 2030. Current participation rates for women are only 75% of those for men, with larger gaps in EMDEs.

Key Information

• The book introduces a new global database on potential growth, which includes over 170 countries and covers a 40-year period.
• It highlights that the current slowdown is structural, not just cyclical, and may last for at least another decade.
• The foreword by the World Bank underscores the urgency of addressing the slowdown to meet global development goals, including poverty reduction and climate change mitigation.
• The authors argue that global cooperation is essential to tackle these challenges, as many issues—such as climate change and trade costs—are transnational in nature.
• The book also emphasizes the importance of education and digital skills in enhancing the growth potential of the services sector.

Conclusion

Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects is a critical resource for understanding the structural challenges facing the global economy. It provides a unified framework for analyzing the drivers of potential growth and offers evidence-based policy solutions. The book is essential reading for policymakers, economists, and students of international development, offering a roadmap to reverse the long-term growth slowdown and build a more integrated, prosperous, and equitable global community.