2025-05-25-世界银行-中国在非洲的进口与工业化_来自埃塞俄比亚的证据（英）_73页_1mb

Chinese Imports and Industrialization in Africa: Evidence from Ethiopia

This policy research paper by Marina Mavungu Ngoma explores the impact of Chinese imports on manufacturing employment in Ethiopia. The analysis indicates that Chinese imports (accounting for 25.6% of Ethiopia's total imports) positively influenced manufacturing employment by increasing production capacity and firm efficiency, particularly through the inputs channel. A one unit increase in import penetration led to a 15.2% rise in industry employment, driven by intermediate goods, which improved productivity and reduced supply constraints.

The study decomposes total imports into final and intermediate goods, finding that intermediate imports (78.5%) are the primary driver of employment gains, while final goods had no statistically significant impact. The analysis also highlights that large firms and labor-intensive industries disproportionately benefited, with no effect based on ownership.

Key findings include:

• Chinese imports rose sharply post-2002 due to China's WTO accession, boosted by lower prices and access to high-quality inputs.
• Effects are robust across multiple checks, including alternative measures and instruments.
• Mechanisms include enhanced total factor productivity, capacity utilization, and skills upgrading, while intra-industry reallocation (entry/exit) showed no significant impact.

This paper provides novel insights, contrasting with prior literature on high-income countries where Chinese imports often reduce employment. It underscores the role of intermediate inputs in fostering industrial development in low-income African economies.

Data sources: Used the Ethiopian Large and Medium-scale Manufacturing Establishment Census and BACI bilateral trade data.
Methodology: Instrumented import exposure using Chinese imports from other Sub-Saharan African countries.

Reference: World Bank Development Research Group, May 2025.