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Green Competitiveness in Ethiopia: Summary

Core Content

This report by the World Bank provides an analysis of how environmental and climate factors are increasingly shaping Ethiopia's economic outlook, particularly in key export sectors. It highlights both the challenges and opportunities associated with the green transition, emphasizing the need for policy interventions to enhance sustainability and competitiveness.

Main Points

• Green Competitiveness and Climate Change: Ethiopia's economy is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts, which are expected to increase in intensity and frequency. These impacts affect both direct and indirect aspects of production, such as water availability, labor conditions, and supply chain stability.

• Selected Sectors: The report focuses on four critical sectors: coffee, textiles and garments, cut flowers, and aviation, which together account for over half of Ethiopia's goods and services exports in 2022. These sectors are particularly exposed to environmental and climate risks and face increasing sustainability demands from international buyers and regulations.

• Supply-Side Impacts: Climate change and environmental degradation are expected to cause significant disruptions in production, including reduced crop yields, increased volatility, and challenges in maintaining reliable supply chains. For example, extreme weather events have already impacted coffee yields and cotton production, with potential long-term consequences for export revenues.

• Demand-Side Changes: Sustainability regulations, such as the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), are reshaping market access for Ethiopian exports. These regulations require detailed production and sourcing data, which can be challenging for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to comply with. The report underscores the need for Ethiopian firms to strengthen their links with international buyers to navigate these requirements.

• Key Environmental Challenges: The report identifies several environmental challenges, including waste management, water scarcity, and the need for more sustainable practices in industries such as textiles and agriculture. It also notes the importance of improving traceability and transparency in supply chains to meet international sustainability standards.

• Opportunities for Green Transition: Ethiopia has strengths in renewable energy, geographic diversity, and industrial park development that could support its green competitiveness. The country's high share of renewable electricity (96%) is a potential comparative advantage for attracting sustainable investments.

Key Information

Sector-Specific Challenges and Opportunities

• Coffee:

  • Vulnerable to climate risks such as droughts and frosts.
  • Faces regulatory scrutiny under the EUDR, which may shift EU imports away from Ethiopia.
  • Opportunities include leveraging sustainability standards for higher prices and improved market access, as well as enhancing traceability through technologies like blockchain.

• Textiles and Garments:

  • Contributes significantly to global GHG emissions and environmental concerns.
  • Most firms are focused on the less environmentally intensive cut-and-make segment.
  • Opportunities exist in developing local value addition and improving environmental practices, but challenges include low local value addition and reliance on imported inputs.

• Cut Flowers:

  • Ethiopia is the second-largest producer in Africa, with advantages in climate, labor, and air freight.
  • Environmental sustainability remains a concern, particularly around waste management and water use.
  • The sector is not yet subject to stringent regulations, but this may change with new frameworks like the EU's Environmental Footprint Category Rules.

• Aviation:

  • Ethiopian Airlines is a key economic driver, contributing about 4% to GDP.
  • The industry faces significant decarbonization challenges, with a growing reliance on sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs).
  • Local SAF production could support export growth and employment, but requires overcoming challenges such as fragmented agricultural value chains and lack of processing infrastructure.

Policy Recommendations

1. Establish a Coordinating Mechanism:

   • Create an inter-ministerial task force to track, analyze, and build compliance with sustainability regulations and voluntary buyer commitments.
   • Involve institutions such as the Ministry of Trade and Regional Integration (MoTRI), Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), and Ministry of Industry (MoI).
   • Utilize existing databases and public-private dialogue initiatives to enhance market awareness and compliance capabilities.

2. Enhance Data and Traceability:

   • Improve data collection and traceability systems in key sectors.
   • Develop tools to support farmers and firms in meeting sustainability requirements, such as climate information services and digital traceability solutions.

3. Invest in Sustainable Infrastructure:

   • Support the development of zero liquid discharge facilities and biorefineries to enhance environmental performance and reduce resource use.
   • Improve transport infrastructure and agricultural value chains to support sustainable production and export.

4. Strengthen Institutional Capacity:

   • Build the technical and financial capacities of government institutions to manage and support sustainable initiatives.
   • Encourage collaboration with development partners and international buyers to address compliance and sustainability challenges.

5. Promote Local Value Addition:

   • Focus on increasing local value addition in sectors such as textiles and agriculture to reduce reliance on imported inputs and enhance economic resilience.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while Ethiopia faces significant environmental and climate challenges, it also has opportunities to leverage its green competitiveness for economic growth. The government is advised to act quickly to address these challenges through coordinated policy efforts, investment in sustainable infrastructure, and enhanced institutional support. The green transition is expected to become increasingly critical for Ethiopia's economic resilience and long-term competitiveness.