英文_ADB_中亚的热适应_家庭制冷选择_25页_818kb

Heat Adaptation in Central Asia: Household Cooling Choices

Background & Objective

This study examines household cooling choices in response to power outages and rising temperatures in the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. It investigates the socioeconomic, environmental, and infrastructure factors shaping these choices and their implications for climate resilience in Central Asia.

Methodology

• Data Source: 2023 "Household Access to Energy in the Fergana Valley" survey (1,522 respondents).

Findings

1. Cooling Methods:

   • Fans/Sunscreen Films: Used by 48.36% households (highest in Uzbekistan at 65%).
   • Air-Conditioning: Adopted by 21.55% households (lowest in Kyrgyz Republic at 9.20%).
   • No Cooling: 30.09% households (highest in Kyrgyz Republic at 40.23%).

2. Key Determinants:

   • Cooling Degree Days (CDD): Higher temperatures (especially 892–1,641 CDD) correlate with greater cooling adoption.
   • Power Reliability: Scheduled blackouts reduce air-conditioning adoption but not fan use.
   • Socioeconomic Factors: Higher education and income positively influence air-conditioning adoption; household size drives fan/sunscreen use.

3. Power Outages:

   • Average monthly outages ~33 hours (Uzbekistan’s highest, Kyrgyz Republic’s lowest).
   • Longer durations hinder energy-intensive cooling (AC) but not passive methods.

Policy Implications

• Strengthen power supply grids to support AC adoption.
• Promote solar panels to address summer energy demands.
• Encourage passive cooling (fans/sunscreen films) in unstable grids.
• Address vulnerabilities of low-income households and enhance community cooling centers.

Conclusion

The study highlights the interplay between climate, infrastructure, and economic factors in shaping household cooling strategies. Addressing power reliability, integrating solar energy, and promoting localized cooling solutions are critical for enhancing climate adaptation in Central Asia.