20180629-法国巴黎银行-Poland_s_central_bank__More_of_the_same_9页_684kb

Summary of Poland's Central Bank Document

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the National Bank of Poland's (NBP) inflation and GDP projections, as well as insights into the potential monetary policy stance. The authors, Michal Dybula and Mariusz Kapuscinski from Bank BGZ BNP Paribas SA, present shadow forecasts that are based on a model similar to the NBP's NECMOD.

Key Projections

• CPI Inflation:

  • 2018: Expected to be slightly below the March projection, at 1.8% y/y, with a downward revision due to a lower starting point.
  • 2019: CPI inflation is projected to rise to 2.6% y/y, slightly above the target.
  • 2020: CPI inflation is expected to increase further to 3.1% y/y, aligning with the NBP's previous forecasts.

• Core Inflation:

  • 2018: Projected at 1.1% y/y, down from the March forecast of 1.6%.
  • 2019: Expected to rise to 2.4% y/y.
  • 2020: Projected to reach 3.0% y/y.

• GDP Growth:

  • 2018: Projected to be similar to 2017, at 4.5% y/y, with a slight upward revision in the first quarter of 2018.
  • 2019: Expected to slow to 3.0% y/y.
  • 2020: Projected to further decline to 2.5% y/y.

• Wage Growth:

  • 2018: Projected to rise to 6.3% y/y.
  • 2019: Expected to increase to 7.0% y/y.
  • 2020: Projected to reach 7.3% y/y, which is higher than previous forecasts.

• Energy Prices:

  • 2018: Expected to rise to 3.1% y/y, up from 2.0% in March.
  • 2019: Projected to increase to 3.4% y/y.
  • 2020: Expected to remain at 2.4% y/y.

• Food Prices:

  • 2018: Projected to be 2.8% y/y.
  • 2019: Expected to rise to 2.6% y/y.
  • 2020: Projected to increase to 3.7% y/y.

Main Views

• The NBP is expected to maintain a dovish monetary policy stance, with interest rates likely to stay on hold until Q3 2019.
• The transmission horizon is considered to be between 4 to 6 quarters, and the NBP will focus on keeping inflation within the 1.5–3.5% tolerance band around the target.
• Wage growth is expected to rise in 2019 and 2020, potentially offsetting the decline in core inflation.
• The increase in energy prices will partially compensate for the lower core inflation in 2018 and 2019.
• The GDP growth for 2018 is expected to remain similar to 2017, but will gradually slow down toward its potential.

Key Factors Influencing Projections

• The lower starting point for core inflation in 2018.
• Strong GDP growth in Q1 2018 that may influence the annual projection.
• Recent wage growth that has surprised to the downside, but is expected to accelerate.
• Rising oil prices since February 2018, contributing to higher energy inflation.
• The model used by the authors is based on the 2012 version of the NBP's NECMOD, which may have been updated, but the structure and parameters are considered similar.

Conclusion

The NBP's revised projections for 2018-2020 are expected to show a similar inflation path as previously forecasted, with CPI inflation likely to remain below the target in 2018 and rise above it in 2019-2020. The GDP growth for 2018 is expected to be similar to 2017, with a gradual slowdown in subsequent years. The Monetary Policy Council is unlikely to change its dovish stance due to the revised inflation projections remaining within the tolerance band. The model revisions and data updates are anticipated to have minimal impact on the monetary policy bias.

Legal Notice Highlights

• This document is non-independent research and may be subject to conflicts of interest.
• It is not investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead.
• The document is intended for professional clients and may not be relied upon by non-professional investors.
• It is not a prospectus and does not constitute an offer to sell or purchase any financial instruments.
• Performance data is based on simulations and is not indicative of future results.
• The document may contain indicated prices and hypothetical scenarios, which are not actual transaction terms.
• Confidentiality is emphasized, and the document should not be copied or distributed without prior written consent.
• Important disclosures are provided for ETFs, options, and convertible securities, highlighting risks and potential conflicts of interest.
• The document is subject to regulatory requirements in the UK, France, Germany, Belgium, and Ireland.