20180711-法国巴黎银行-Argentina_s_central_bank__Liquidity_control__8页_437kb

Summary of Argentina's Central Bank: Liquidity Control

Core Content

Argentina's Central Bank (BCRA) has introduced several adjustments to its monetary policy framework, emphasizing transparency and a multi-tool approach to managing inflation and liquidity. The changes are part of a broader strategy to stabilize the economy and align with international financial standards.

Main Policy Changes

• Inflation and Monetary Aggregates Monitoring:
  The BCRA will continue its inflation-targeting regime with the IMF, but it will also monitor the growth of monetary aggregates. This is a complementary measure to the interest rate tool and will be implemented throughout the transition period to single-digit inflation.

• Rate Decisions by Vote:
  Starting from the next monetary policy meeting, rate decisions will be made through a voting process among members of the monetary policy council. Votes will be published, which is a positive step towards greater transparency and accountability in the decision-making process.

• Monthly Meetings:
  The frequency of monetary policy meetings will be reduced from every two weeks to once a month. This change is considered reasonable and is expected to provide more stability and clarity in the central bank's communication strategy.

Key Views and Expectations

• The central bank's decision to monitor monetary aggregates rather than target them is seen as a pragmatic move, avoiding a potential conflict with its previous commitments to the IMF.
• The BCRA is expected to maintain the current policy rate of 40% at the next meeting on 7 August, despite early signs of inflation easing in July.
• The central bank may continue to intervene in the secondary market for Lebacs to reinforce its monetary policy stance between meetings.

Implications

• The new framework suggests a more transparent and structured approach to monetary policy, which may help in building market confidence.
• The BCRA is likely to maintain a steady and cautious approach to policy implementation in the near term, focusing on gradual and controlled measures to bring inflation down.
• The central bank's actions are expected to be consistent with its broader economic stabilization goals, emphasizing liquidity control and inflation management.

Supporting Visuals

• Chart 1: Shows the growth of monetary aggregates on a 20-day moving average basis, highlighting trends in liquidity.
• Chart 2: Provides insight into the monetary base and implicit IMF targets, offering a visual representation of the central bank's policy alignment.

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Additional Disclosures

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