2009年-世界发展银行全球_Migration_and_Remittance_Trends_2009___A_Better-Than-Expected_Outcome_So_Far_But_Significant_Risks_Ahead_14页_1mb

Summary of Migration and Development Brief (November 3, 2009)

Core Content

This document from the World Bank's Migration and Remittances Team provides an analysis of global migration and remittance trends in 2009, highlighting both the resilience of remittance flows and the risks ahead. It outlines the performance of remittances across different regions and the factors influencing migration and remittance patterns.

Main Points

• Remittance Trends in 2009:

  • Official remittance flows to developing countries in 2008 were $338 billion, higher than the previous estimate of $328 billion.
  • In 2009, remittance flows are estimated to fall to $317 billion, a 6.1% decline, which is smaller than the earlier projection of a 7.3% drop.
  • South Asia showed stronger-than-expected remittance growth, with notable increases in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and the Philippines.
  • Latin America and the Caribbean, and Middle East and North Africa experienced weaker-than-expected flows, but signs suggest they have reached a bottom.
  • Europe and Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa also saw mixed results, with some countries experiencing declines and others showing better-than-expected performance.

• Regional Performance:

  • South Asia: Remittance flows increased by 24% in Pakistan and 16% in Bangladesh in the first eight months of 2009.
  • East Asia and Pacific: The Philippines saw nearly 4% growth in remittances until August 2009.
  • Latin America and the Caribbean: Mexico experienced a 13.4% decline in remittances in the first nine months of 2009.
  • Middle East and North Africa: Egypt saw a 20% decline in remittances in the first half of 2009.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa: Nigeria, Kenya, and Uganda showed better-than-expected growth, while Cape Verde, Senegal, and Mali saw declines.

• Top Remittance Recipients:

  • India, China, and Mexico remained the top recipients in 2008.
  • Countries like Tajikistan, Tonga, Moldova, Kyrgyz Republic, Lesotho, Samoa, and Lebanon received a large share of remittances relative to GDP.

• Downside Risks:

  • Jobless recovery: Weak labor markets may lead to reduced migration and remittance flows.
  • Tighter immigration controls: Countries are likely to increase restrictions, affecting both return and new migration.
  • Unpredictable exchange rates: Currency fluctuations can impact the real value of remittances, particularly for countries with weak currencies.

• Migration Behavior:

  • Migrants are not returning home despite weak job markets, due to fears of immigration restrictions and higher incomes abroad.
  • New migration flows have declined in several countries, including Bangladesh and Poland, due to economic downturns in destination countries.

• Currency Effects:

  • The depreciation of local currencies against the US dollar (e.g., Indian rupee and Philippine peso) has led to increased remittance flows for investment purposes.
  • In contrast, the weakening of the British pound reduced remittances to the UK in US dollar terms, but not in local currency terms.

• Outlook for 2010-2011:

  • Remittances to developing countries are expected to remain flat in 2010 and grow by 1.4% and 3.9% in 2011.
  • Recovery is likely to be shallow, and remittance flows may not return to 2008 levels.
  • Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as Europe and Central Asia, may not recover to pre-crisis levels by 2011.

• Policy Recommendations:

  • Facilitate migration and remittances to make them cheaper, safer, and more productive.
  • Encourage the use of formal and technological channels for remittances.
  • Support return migrants by integrating them into local economies and helping them establish businesses.
  • Negotiate mobility partnerships and immigration quota agreements with destination countries.

Key Information

• The financial crisis has had a mixed impact on migration and remittance flows, with some regions showing resilience and others experiencing significant declines.
• Remittances are expected to remain more stable than private capital flows, especially in developing countries.
• Exchange rate fluctuations, particularly against the US dollar, play a critical role in the real value of remittances.
• The base effect from high 2008 flows has contributed to the decline in 2009, but these levels are unlikely to be sustained.
• Migration policies and economic conditions in destination countries significantly affect remittance trends.

Conclusion

Despite the financial crisis, remittances have shown resilience, especially in South Asia. However, future growth is expected to be slow, with potential risks including jobless recovery, immigration controls, and exchange rate volatility. Policy interventions are crucial to enhance the effectiveness and sustainability of remittance flows for both sending and receiving countries.