20260430-招银国际-吉利汽车-00175.HK-Higher_earnings_visibility_after_strong_1Q26_5页_744kb

Geely Automobile (175 HK) Summary

Core Content and Key Highlights

Geely Automobile (175 HK) reported strong performance in its first quarter of 2026, with its net profit exceeding expectations due to improved gross profit margin (GPM). The company maintains a BUY rating, with an updated target price of HK$27.00, reflecting a more positive outlook for the fiscal year 2026 (FY26E).

Main Points

• 1Q26 Earnings Performance:

  • Revenue was largely in line with expectations, driven by the highest sales volume among Chinese automakers.
  • GPM widened by 0.6ppts quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) to 17.5%, 0.7ppts higher than the prior forecast.
  • Combined SG&A and R&D expenses were slightly below projections, despite a decline in the capitalization ratio (from 64% in FY25A to 56% in 1Q26).
  • Net profit reached RMB4.2bn, 9% higher than the forecast, with core net profit rising 31% YoY and reaching RMB6,400 per vehicle.

• Revised FY26E Forecasts:

  • Sales volume forecast revised up to 3.5mn units from 3.4mn units, mainly due to stronger overseas sales.
  • GPM forecast revised to 17.7% from 17.4%, with management expecting stability or a slight increase in 2Q26.
  • R&D capitalization ratio forecast reduced to 58% from 64%, leading to a 8% upward revision in net profit forecast to RMB20.9bn.

• Zeekr's Impact:

  • Zeekr has improved its positioning in the upscale market with the successful rollouts of the 9X and 8X models.
  • This improved positioning is expected to lead to higher margins and better valuation, as well as enhance the company's overall image.

Financial Overview

Revenue and Profitability

Profitability Metrics

Valuation and Key Risks

• P/E Ratio:

  • FY26E: 10.2x
  • FY27E: 8.9x
  • FY28E: 8.3x

• P/B Ratio:

  • FY26E: 1.9x
  • FY27E: 1.7x
  • FY28E: 1.5x

• Dividend Yield (%):

  • FY26E: 3.9
  • FY27E: 4.5
  • FY28E: 4.8

• Target Price: HK$27.00 (Previously: HK$25.00)

Key Risks

• Lower-than-expected sales volume or GPM, especially from New Energy Vehicle (NEV) models.
• Sector-wide de-rating.
• Management's ability to maintain GPM and sales growth in the face of rising raw material costs.

Share Performance and Structure

Shareholding Structure

Stock Performance (12-Month)

Analyst and CMBIGM Ratings

• Analyst Certification: The analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect personal opinions and that there are no conflicts of interest.
• CMBIGM Ratings:
  • BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months.
  • HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over the next 12 months.
  • SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over the next 12 months.
  • NOT RATED: Stock not rated by CMBIGM.
  • OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark.
  • MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark.
  • UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark.

Important Disclosures

• CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the U.S., Singapore, or the U.K., and this report is not intended for general distribution.
• The report is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for investment decisions without consulting a professional financial advisor.
• CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice and assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred from reliance on this report.