联合国贸易发展委员会-税收和商业非法资金流动的统计计量（英）-2023.10-50页_3mb

Statistical Measurement of Tax and Commercial Illicit Financial Flows

Pilot Testing Methodologies

Introduction

• Illicit financial flows (IFFs) drain resources needed for sustainable development and human rights.
• SDG Indicator 16.4.1 focuses on measuring total inward and outward IFFs.
• UNCTAD and UNODC lead global efforts to develop methodologies for IFF measurement.

Conceptual Framework

• UNCTAD and UNODC conceptual framework defines IFFs and categorizes them into four main types: tax and commercial practices, illegal markets, corruption, and exploitation/terrorism financing.
• Activities generating tax and commercial IFFs include trade misinvoicing, aggressive tax avoidance, and wealth transfer to evade taxes.

Measurement Methodologies

• Proposed methods for measuring IFFs are tiered based on feasibility, data requirements, and reliability:
  1. Tier 1: Preferred methods (e.g., Partner Country Method Plus, Price Filter Method Plus).
  2. Tier 2: Fallback methods for limited data availability.
  3. Tier 3: Alternative methods with higher uncertainty.
• Key challenges include data limitations, data confidentiality, and methodological refinements.

Pilot Testing Implementation

• Eleven African countries tested methodologies to measure tax and commercial IFFs through Technical Working Groups (TWGs).
• Trade misinvoicing was the most commonly addressed type (using Partner Country Method and Price Filter Method).
• Challenges included data access, granularity, and inconsistencies across countries.

Lessons Learned and Conclusions

• Early findings indicate IFFs significantly impact national resources and sustainable development efforts.
• Collaboration among national authorities is critical for data access and IFF measurement.
• Methodological refinements are ongoing to address gaps in current approaches.

Further Work

• Continued capacity-building and technical support required to support global reporting on SDG Indicator 16.4.1.
• Focus on aggregating IFF statistics into a single indicator while ensuring methodological robustness.
• Exploration of IFF measurement as a satellite account integrated with national economic data.

Summary

• IFF measurement is essential for evidence-based policy formulation and achieving SDG targets.
• Challenges in data and methodology must be addressed with sustained international cooperation.
• Pilot testing provides insights for refining methods, but broader implementation requires sustained resources and political buy-in.