2015年-世界发展银行全球_Mongolia_Country_Program_Evaluation_FY05-13___An_Independent_Evaluation_155页_1mb

Mongolia Country Program Evaluation, FY05-13 Summary

Core Content

This report is an Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) assessment of the World Bank Group's (WBG) program in Mongolia from fiscal years 2005 to 2013. The evaluation highlights the Bank's response to Mongolia's economic transformation, particularly the mining boom, and its role in supporting policy reforms, sector development, and public welfare initiatives.

Main Objectives and Report Structure

• Evaluation Objectives: Assess the effectiveness of the WBG's program in Mongolia, focusing on fiscal management, mineral and environmental governance, economic diversification, and improving population livelihoods.
• Report Structure: Divided into several sections including Country Context, World Bank Group Assistance, Macro Policies, Mineral and Environmental Management, Economic Diversification, Livelihood Improvement, and Conclusions with Recommendations.

Key Findings

1. Economic Transformation and Strategy Shift

• Mongolia transitioned from a low-income to a middle-income country due to a mining boom between 2005 and 2013.
• The initial WBG strategy did not adequately address the mining boom, but the new country management team adapted by prioritizing mining issues within a more selective framework.
• The Bank introduced a senior mining specialist and conducted in-depth political economy analysis, which helped in aligning with government needs and building consensus on fiscal and social policies.

2. Fiscal and Financial Management

• The Bank supported Mongolia in developing fiscal and financial management frameworks, including the introduction of the Fiscal Stability Law and the Sovereign Wealth Fund.
• It also played a key role in the development of the Integrated Budget Law (2011), which aimed to improve intergovernmental transfers and public investment allocation.
• Despite these efforts, the implementation of reforms weakened after the economic recovery from the 2008-2009 crisis, and the government has not fully adopted or "owned" these reforms.

3. Mineral and Environmental Management

• The Bank supported the development of a more transparent and sustainable mineral sector through the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) compliance and environmental impact assessments (EIAs).
• It helped strengthen the legal and institutional framework for environmental management, including the adoption of a law on environmental impact assessments.
• However, the expected outcomes of these interventions have not been fully realized, and the environmental impact of mining remains a concern, especially in terms of water and land use.

4. Economic Diversification and Nonmineral Sector Growth

• The Bank promoted economic diversification and private sector development (PSD), focusing on improving the business environment and supporting microfinance and SMEs.
• It also supported the financial sector through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) and helped design a comprehensive program for rural development.
• The Bank’s approach to economic diversification was innovative but lacked a long-term strategic framework, leading to limited impact in key sectors like mining and urban infrastructure.

5. Improving Population Livelihoods

• The Bank implemented several projects to improve rural livelihoods, including the Livestock and Agricultural Marketing Project (LAMP), the Sustainable Livelihoods Project (SLP), and the Index-Based Livestock Insurance Program (IBLIP).
• These projects contributed to improving access to education, healthcare, and basic infrastructure in rural areas, and enhanced herders' resilience to environmental shocks.
• In urban areas, the Bank supported the development of public services and infrastructure, but the impact was less pronounced compared to rural initiatives.

Key Contributions

• Fiscal Discipline: The Bank supported Mongolia in navigating the global economic crisis through budget support and development policy credits (DPCs).
• Sectoral Programs: It developed a range of sectoral and cross-cutting programs, including those focused on education, health, and infrastructure.
• Public Engagement: The Bank played a key role in building public awareness and engagement through media outreach, civil society partnerships, and parliamentary interactions.
• Institutional Strengthening: It supported the development of institutions such as the National Statistical Office (NSO) and the Development Bank of Mongolia (DBM).

Lessons and Recommendations

Lessons

• The Bank's flexible and innovative approach was critical in adapting to the challenges of a resource-dependent economy.
• Political economy analysis and stakeholder engagement were essential in promoting policy reforms and building consensus.
• The Bank's projects had a positive impact on rural livelihoods and environmental awareness, but their sustainability and ownership by the government remain concerns.

Recommendations

1. Strengthen Governance and Accountability: Focus on building demand and capacity for good governance, particularly in times of political instability.
2. Improve Public Investment Quality: Prioritize support for improving the quality and governance of public investment, especially as the government continues to rely on international market borrowing.
3. Enhance Policy Simulation Capabilities: Develop domestic policy simulation capacities to better manage potential price declines and economic volatility.
4. Support Banking System Reforms: Continue to assist in the strengthening of the banking system and ensure that reforms are implemented and owned by the government.
5. Streamline Bank Programs: Focus on more selective and impactful programs, particularly in the rural sector, while scaling back support for the urban sector.

Conclusion

The Bank Group's performance in Mongolia is considered satisfactory, but its contribution to outcomes is only moderately satisfactory. The Bank's efforts in fiscal management, environmental governance, and rural development have been effective, yet challenges remain in ensuring the long-term sustainability and ownership of reforms. The evaluation recommends a more strategic and focused approach to future assistance.