2025-06-05-Jefferies-专家电话会议_探索欧洲美容零售格局-_6月18日_6页_497kb

Summary of EXPERT CALL: Exploring the European Beauty Retail Landscape - June 18th, 2025

Event Overview

• Date: Wednesday, 18 June 2025
• Time: 3:00 PM BST / 4:00 PM CEST / 10:00 AM EDT
• Speaker: Christoph Honnefelder, former CEO of Flaconi and Kylie Cosmetics at Coty Inc.
• Host: Henrik Paganetty, European Midcaps
• Purpose: To discuss emerging trends and competitive developments in the European beauty retail industry, with a focus on Flaconi as a major competitor to Douglas.
• Relevant Stocks: Douglas AG and other listed beauty companies.

Discussion Topics

1. Flaconi's Competitive Position: Flaconi is highlighted as a significant competitor to Douglas, as noted in Douglas's latest quarterly update.
2. Strategic Positioning and Outlook: The session aims to analyze the strategic positioning of key market players and assess the current industry outlook.
3. Retailer-Supplier Relationships: The evolving dynamics between retailers and suppliers in the beauty sector will be explored, especially in the context of increased competition and market complexity.

Speaker Biography

Christoph Honnefelder has a diverse background in the beauty and retail sectors:

• Current Roles: Managing Director at WB D2C Group GmbH, Chair of the Advisory Board at Beauty Icons AB, and Advisory Board Member at The Equity Studio LLP.
• Past Roles:
  • Former CEO of Flaconi GmbH (2021–2023) and Chairman of the Board (2020–2021)
  • Former CEO of Kylie Cosmetics at Coty Inc. (2020)
  • Former EVP Assortment & Purchasing at Douglas AG (2016–2019)
  • Former Director of Products at Tchibo GmbH (2007–2015)

Investment Recommendation and Valuation

• Douglas AG (DOU GR): Current rating is BUY with a price target of €11.98.
• Valuation Methodology: Includes DCF analysis, peer multiples, and other financial metrics such as EBITDA, EPS, and P/E ratios.
• Rating Definitions:
  • Buy: Expected total return of 15% or more within 12 months.
  • Hold: Expected total return between -10% and +15%.
  • Underperform: Expected total return of -10% or less.
• Stop Loss Mechanism: Stocks with a 120-day volatility in the bottom quartile of S&P stocks have a 15% stop loss, while others have a 20% stop loss.

Key Risks

• Global and Geopolitical Risks: Impact on economic conditions and market stability.
• Brand and Reputation Risks: Concerns about brand perception and market position.
• Logistical Risks: Challenges in supply chain management and distribution.
• Competitive Risks: Intensified competition from companies like Flaconi.
• Currency Risk: Exchange rate fluctuations can affect returns for non-US investors.

Legal and Regulatory Disclosures

• Analyst Certification: Henrik Paganetty and Martin Comtesse, CFA, certify that the views in the report reflect their personal opinions and that they are not influenced by compensation tied to recommendations.
• Conflict of Interest: Jefferies may have business relationships with companies covered in the report, which could affect objectivity.
• Regional Restrictions:
  • Non-US Analysts: Not registered with FINRA, and their reports may not be subject to all U.S. regulations.
  • UK: Issued by Jefferies International Limited, authorized by the Financial Conduct Authority.
  • Germany: Issued by Jefferies GmbH, regulated by BaFin.
  • Hong Kong: Intended for professional investors only.
  • Singapore: For accredited, expert, or institutional investors.
  • India: Distributed by Jefferies India Private Limited, with relevant compliance officers.
  • Australia: Directed at wholesale clients only.
  • Dubai: Intended for Professional Clients only.

Important Investor Disclosures

• No Investment Advice: The report is for general information and should not be relied upon as investment advice.
• No Suitability Analysis: Jefferies does not perform suitability checks for individual investors.
• Forward-Looking Statements: Subject to change due to market conditions and uncertainties.
• Third-Party Content: Includes ratings from agencies like Standard & Poor's; no guarantees are provided regarding accuracy or completeness.
• Non-Disclosure of Recommendations: Jefferies does not assume responsibility for the financial success of any investment and disclaims liability for any losses.

Conclusion

The event provides an opportunity to gain insights into the evolving European beauty retail landscape, with a particular emphasis on the competitive dynamics involving Douglas and Flaconi. It also outlines the valuation methodologies and investment ratings used by Jefferies, along with the associated risks and legal considerations for investors across different jurisdictions.