2018年-世界发展银行全球_Groundswell___Preparing_for_Internal_Climate_Migration_256页_63mb

Summary of "Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration"

Core Content

"Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration" is a report published by the World Bank in 2018, authored by a team of experts including Kanta Kumari Rigaud, Alex de Sherbinin, Bryan Jones, and others. The report focuses on the implications of internal climate migration for development and outlines strategies to manage this growing phenomenon.

Main Objectives

• To understand the relationship between climate change and internal migration.
• To project the scale and patterns of climate-induced internal migration in selected regions.
• To place climate migration within the broader context of development.
• To provide actionable strategies for managing internal climate migration effectively.

Key Findings

The report identifies climate change as a significant driver of internal migration, particularly in regions vulnerable to environmental stressors. It emphasizes that migration can be a form of adaptation when supported by appropriate policies and investments. Key findings include:

• Climate change-induced migration is likely to increase significantly by 2050, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America.
• Internal migration is more common than international migration in response to climate stressors.
• Migration patterns are influenced by slow-onset climate changes such as sea level rise, changes in water availability, and crop productivity.
• Distress migration is associated with the loss of livelihoods and assets, often due to a combination of climate events and other factors.
• Hotspots of climate migration are identified in each of the three regions of focus: East Africa, South Asia, and Mexico and Central America.

Modeling Approach

The report employs a modeling approach that integrates climate, water, and crop models with demographic and socioeconomic data to estimate internal climate migration. The key elements of the approach are:

• Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are used to represent different development trajectories and their interaction with climate change.
• Climate models such as HadGEM2-ES and IPSL-CM5A-LR are used to project climate impacts.
• Water and crop models like WaterGAP2 and LPJmL are used to assess changes in water availability and agricultural productivity.
• Population projection models are used to estimate migration flows, including a gravity-based model to predict the attractiveness of destinations.

Climate Migration Projections

The report provides regional projections of internal climate migration under three scenarios (SSP1, SSP2, and SSP5) for the following regions:

• East Africa: Projections indicate a significant increase in climate migrants, particularly in coastal and low-lying areas. Hotspots are identified based on population density changes.
• South Asia: Climate-induced migration is expected to be substantial, with impacts on water availability and crop production playing a critical role. Coastal and agricultural zones are particularly affected.
• Mexico and Central America: Projections highlight the risk of climate-induced migration due to sea level rise, extreme weather events, and land degradation. Urban areas and agricultural zones are identified as key migration corridors.

The pessimistic reference scenario (RCP8.5) shows the most severe impacts, leading to the highest projected numbers of climate migrants.

Development Context

The report places climate migration within the broader development context, emphasizing the following:

• Ethiopia: Climate change is expected to impact agricultural productivity and water availability, leading to migration from rural to urban areas. The Productive Safety Net Programme is highlighted as a successful adaptation strategy.
• Bangladesh: Rising sea levels and coastal erosion are major drivers of migration, with significant displacement expected in the coastal zones. The report discusses the country's national strategy for managing climate-induced displacement.
• Mexico: Climate change is projected to affect agricultural zones and coastal areas, leading to internal migration. The report highlights the importance of planned relocation and early warning systems.

Managing Internal Climate Migration

The report outlines strategies to manage internal climate migration and reduce its negative impacts:

• Early and concerted action is necessary to mitigate the effects of climate-induced migration.
• Three key areas for intervention are:
  1. Improving adaptive capacity: Enhancing resilience through sustainable livelihoods and environmental management.
  2. Enhancing urban preparedness: Ensuring that cities can accommodate climate migrants and provide necessary services.
  3. Supporting migration planning: Including policies for planned relocation, disaster response, and integration of migrants into new communities.

The report also calls for international cooperation and the use of global frameworks such as the Global Compact on Refugees (GCR) to support climate migration management.

Key Concepts

• Climate in-migration hotspot: Areas where population increases are attributed to climate-induced migration.
• Climate out-migration hotspot: Areas where population decreases are attributed to climate-induced migration.
• Adaptive capacity: The ability of systems to adjust to climate impacts.
• Resilience: The capacity of systems to cope with and recover from climate-related shocks.
• Distress migration: Migration driven by the perception of no alternative but to move for survival.
• Environmental mobility: Migration resulting from environmental changes that negatively affect living conditions.

Data and Methods

• The report uses modeling data and geospatial processing to estimate migration patterns.
• Uncertainty is acknowledged in the modeling process, with multiple scenarios and model combinations used to capture a range of possible outcomes.
• Technical details on the models and data inputs are provided in the appendices, including the GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate crop model (GEPIC) and the gravity-based population projection model.

Conclusion

The report concludes that internal climate migration is a growing development issue that requires proactive planning and policy intervention. It emphasizes that migration can be a sensible adaptation strategy if managed effectively, and that early action is crucial to avoid a crisis. The report calls for multisectoral approaches, including environmental, economic, and social policies, to address the challenges of climate-induced internal migration.

References

The report references various climate models, demographic studies, and policy documents to support its findings and projections. It also cites surveys and case studies from different regions to illustrate the impact of climate change on migration patterns.

Appendices

• Appendix A provides technical details on the modeling data and methods used in the report.
• Appendix B includes ISIMIP Water and Crop Model Results for the three regions of focus.

Figures and Maps

The report includes a series of figures and maps that illustrate the projected population changes, migration hotspots, and climate impacts in the regions of focus. These visual aids help in understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of climate-induced migration.

Tables

The report also contains tables summarizing key demographic, socioeconomic, and climate risk indicators for the three countries of focus. These tables provide a structured overview of the data used in the projections and analysis.

Boxes

• Box 1.1 defines climate change-induced migration and related terminology.
• Box 5.1 discusses the effectiveness of Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Programme.
• Box 5.2 highlights international migration trends and the gender dimensions of migration in Bangladesh.
• Box 5.3 outlines Bangladesh's national strategy for managing climate-induced displacement.
• Box 6.1 provides an overview of global frameworks and processes on migration.
• Box 6.2 discusses the World Bank's approach to migration.
• Box 6.3 outlines avenues for future research on climate migration.